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From: Office of Tetje Rod-Larsen c 
Subject: IPI Regional Insights - July 2014 
Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 19:29:59 +0000 
INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE 
IPI Regional Insights 
July 2014 
The International Peace Institute's (IPI) Regional Insights covers select regional and thematic developments based on 
information from a variety of sources. It draws on the research of IPI experts and is provided exclusively to major 
donors and members. Each monthly issue covers challenges and opportunities related to international peace, security, 
and development. 
African Union Summit: At the recently concluded AU summit in Equatorial Guinea, African heads of state adopted the 
"Protocol on Amendments to the Protocol on the Statute of the African Court of Justice and Human Rights," granting 
themselves and other undefined senior officials immunity from prosecution for a range of crimes including crimes against 
humanity, war crimes, and genocide. This action is purely symbolic, as the African Court of Justice is a long way from being 
established and it does not impact the International Criminal Court's (ICC) capacity to investigate and prosecute African or 
other state leaders for these crimes. Nonetheless, it is a major setback for the goal of justice in Africa, a rebuke to the 
recent decision of the Assembly of States Parties to the ICC not to grant immunity to heads of state, and a rejection of the 
fundamental principles underlying the African Union Constitutive Act. The media, NGOs, and think tanks in Africa have 
condemned this action as reflecting the self-interest of heads of state while disregarding the crimes perpetrated against 
tens of thousands of Africans in recent and ongoing conflicts. The issue is likely to arise again at the next session of the ICC 
Assembly of States Parties later this year. 
Mali: The Malian government and Tuareg rebel groups held peace talks in Algiers on Wednesday, July 16th, after an 
exchange of prisoners helped to get the negotiations started. The talks, seen as a major breakthrough by regional and 
international partners, included representatives from the United Nations, European Union, African Union, and the 
Economic Community of West African States. While the talks themselves represent a breakthrough, an agreement 
reached between the government and Tuaregs in Algiers may not necessarily carry weight with the diverse and 
fragmented rebel groups in northern Mali. 
South Sudan: The European Union has imposed sanctions in the form of a travel ban and asset freezes on army 
commander Santino Deng and rebel chief military leader Peter Gadet, for obstructing the peace process and their roles in 
committing atrocities in the past six months of fighting in South Sudan. These sanctions, which are intended to send a 
strong message to both President Salva Kir and opposition leader Riek Machar are a sign of the growing frustration on the 
part of international partners and regional leaders with the continuing violence and the inability of the parties to find a 
resolution to the conflict. Calls for sanctions from the United Nations Security Council could be an uphill battle given that 
China and Russia have expressed reservations regarding sanctions. In addition, both sides have been unwilling to include 
independent voices from civil society organizations in the talks in Addis Ababa, leading to skepticism about the parties' 
willingness to commit to forming a transitional unity government. Deterioration of the humanitarian crisis, including an 
outbreak of cholera and a looming famine, could lead to further displacement of people internally and across the region. 
Middle East 
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Egypt: July 3rd marked the first anniversary of the ousting of Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi. A protest 
mounted by Islamist supporters was quickly quashed by Egyptian police: 39 key activists were arrested ahead of the 
protests while 157 protestors were detained on the day. Several key districts in Cairo were affected as authorities closed 
various squares and cordoned off a number of main streets. While overall turnout for the protest was low, this is less an 
indicator of Islamist sentiment in Egypt than of fear of confronting the authorities at a time when anti-Brotherhood 
attitudes remain overwhelming. Upcoming parliamentary elections, set to take place in the fall, will reveal a more 
accurate profile of Egyptian political leanings, particularly as Salafi factions are poised for a big win. President Al Sisi issued 
a decree on July 15th forming a Supreme Electoral Commission to oversee the election. 
On the economic front, the government has taken some of the boldest action in recent Egyptian history by implementing 
a series of subsidy reforms on July 4th. Fuel prices increased by 78%, while higher taxes on cigarettes and alcohol were 
put into place. The government also signed off on a capital gains tax and hinted that the price of electricity would increase 
over the next five years. While this decision was deemed a massive risk and an unpopular move—even President Al Sisi 
referred to it as "bitter medicine"—the blowback has been weaker than expected. It could yet provoke public anger, 
however, as food prices are likely to increase in light of higher transportation expenses associated with the fuel subsidy 
reform. This will be particularly true in Cairo, given that all food products are either transported from the countryside or 
brought in from port cities. Approximately 30% of the Egyptian budget was spent on fuel and food subsidies before the 
reform. 
Iran: With the July 20th deadline looming, it appears the P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran may end inconclusively or require an 
extension. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif's called for an extension—an indicator that enough headway has been 
made that, in Zarif's words, "this is a process worth continuing." Secretary of State John Kerry told the press as he was 
leaving Vienna, the site of the talks, that he was headed back to Washington to consult with the US president and 
congress about "whether or not more time is warranted" for negotiations. 
Israel and Palestine: As the death toll mounts in the latest conflict, Egypt—in a first for the Sisi government—stepped in 
to negotiate a new ceasefire between the Israelis and Hamas following the recent cross border rocket attacks and 
airstrikes. Hamas turned down the proposal, which was supposed to take effect on July 15th. The rejection of the 
ceasefire is also telling of the new dynamic between Egypt and Hamas: while the latter enjoyed a close relationship to the 
Morsi regime, the Sisi era has brought with it widespread popular hostility against Hamas, adding a layer of tension 
between the two sides (Hamas has gone as far as claiming that they were not even consulted on the ceasefire draft before 
it was submitted). Efforts to negotiate a ceasefire continue, as both the Israelis and Palestinians find themselves under 
enormous external pressure to stop the fighting. Press reports have indicated that Qatar and Turkey are now working on 
alternative ceasefire plan: indeed, Prime Minister Erdogan and Sheikh Tamim met on July 16th to discuss the potential 
effort to end hostilities. 
Jordan: Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood—the Islamic Action Front (IAF)—seems to have taken a more moderate tack 
recently, possibly in an attempt to heal rifts within the party between moderate and conservative voices while gaining 
favor in the eyes of the government as the lesser of two Islamist threats. At a news conference on July 2nd, IAF 
announced an extensive economic policy proposal for the country, which was circulated to various government ministries. 
While Jordan's executive branch remained largely silent, media officials commented that "They [the IAFJ are a part of the 
national fabric...We hope this signals a more meaningful engagement in public affairs." 
In an apparent indication of the Jordanian concern of spillover from Syria and Iraq, Jordan's army recently announced a 
drive for new recruits. While officials maintain that this is standard procedure, there is speculation that it directly relates 
to the advances of the Islamic State in Iraq, given that Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi—considered the Islamic State's "spiritual 
father"—was a Jordanian national who headed up al-Qaeda in Iraq until he was killed by US forces in 2006. Recent 
demonstrations in the area of Ma'an saw protestors align with the Islamic State by calling themselves the "Fallujah of 
Jordan" and thus, suggest the possibility of some grassroots support for IS within certain pockets of Jordanian society. 
Kuwait: Politics in Kuwait heated up again this month, as Kuwaitis took to the streets in illegal protests and demanded 
political reform—in particular, a more empowered and representative national assembly and the release of imprisoned 
political leaders (most recently, opposition leader Musallam al-Barak). In an apparent response to the increase in public 
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pressure, the Kuwaiti government recently threatened to revoke the citizenship of those suspected of undermining the 
security and stability of the state, further fueling political tensions. 
The government announced an "iron fist" policy against those who threaten the state and increased scrutiny of the 
activities of nongovernmental associations to make sure they are not engaging in political arenas. Protests have been 
taking place in Kuwait since 2006 and bring together various disaffected groups, including young people, powerful tribal 
groups, Islamists, nationalists, human rights activists, and "bidoun" Kuwaitis who lack full nationality and rights. The 
tensions are likely to continue to run high as opposition leader al-Barak's trial for insulting the supreme judicial council 
and slandering its chairman (a crime for which he could receive three years in jail) is set to resume in September and as 
the political turmoil and Islamist advance continue in neighboring Iraq. 
Yemen: Following a several-day battle in the northern area of Amran between Houthi militants on one side and local army 
units and tribes affiliated with the Isiah party on the other, the UN Security Council issued a statement on July 11th 
"demanding that the Houthis and all armed groups and parties involved in the violence withdraw" and urging the Panel of 
Experts "to look into [peace] spoilers as a matter of urgency and to present expeditiously relevant recommendations to 
the [Sanctions] Committee established pursuant to the resolution 2140 (2014):" 
While violence initially subsided following mediation efforts of UN Special Envoy Jamal Benomar, fighting has since 
resumed over strategic vantage points despite efforts to put in place a more neutral army unit in Amran. Further, the 
fallout of this most recent fighting in the north has highlighted internal complexities within the armed forces, as two high-
ranking army commanders have been sacked and another seen to be closely aligned with the Isiah movement has had his 
powers curtailed. These decrees follow increasing concerns over fragmentation within the Yemeni political and security 
forces' infrastructure, which were further highlighted by the Security Council's call for "military units to remain committed 
to their obligation of neutrality" in its July 11th statement. 
Central and South Asia 
Afghanistan: US Secretary of State John Kerry brokered an election deal between the two presidential candidates 
Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani on Saturday July 12th. For the time being, the deal holds out hope for a nonviolent 
conclusion to the election process, once an internationally monitored audit of the votes is complete. There is speculation 
that the results may not be known by August 2" when outgoing President Karzai is constitutionally expected to step 
down, further raising concerns about this important handover of power. The ongoing political uncertainty is deeply 
damaging to the already desperate economic situation and the fragile security situation. An attack by a suicide bomber 
killed at least 41 people in Paktika province on the border with Pakistan on July 15th. The bombing is almost certainly 
linked to the pressure on militants across the border in Waziristan, Pakistan (see below). Early speculation is pointing to 
the Haqqani network as likely behind the attack, which has been rumored to have had advance notice when the Pakistani 
offensive began a month ago. 
Pakistan: The military offensive against the Pakistani Taliban and foreign fighters continues in north Waziristan. The 
offensive has produced an estimated 950,000 internally displaced people. While the press has little or no access to the 
areas of fighting, Pakistani military sources are allowing photos of captured weapons, and articles are describing recently 
abandoned suicide bombing schools. 
Sri Lanka: The effects of intercommunal violence and riots that erupted on June 14th are playing out in coastal towns 
south of Colombo, known as the country's resort region. At least four people were killed and nearly 80 seriously injured in 
the immediate aftermath of clashes in two Muslim-majority towns, after the Buddhist nationalist group Bodu Bala Sena 
(BBS) held a protest march. While violence was contained to these towns, armed police and military stood guard at 
mosques and Muslim-owned shops across the country into the first week of July. President Mahinda Rajapakse and his 
administration faced criticism for their limited response to the violence, while Justice Minister Rauf Hakeem, who is also 
leader of the country's main Muslim party, warned that continued discrimination against the Muslim community could 
increase the influence of outside radical groups. 
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*The International Peace Institute (IPI) is an independent, not-for-profit think tank with a staff representing more than 20 nationalities with offices in New York 
across from the United Nations and in Vienna. IPI  promotes the  prevention and settlement of conflicts between and within states by strengthening international 
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