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IPI SALZBURG FORUM 
3-5 September 2017 
MAPPING THE NEW 
GEOPOLITICS 
PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY 
OR LORDS OF THE LAND? 
PROGRAM 
NIF #IPISF17 
Hotel Schloss Leopoldskron I LeopoldskronstraBe 56.5S 15020 Salzburg Austria 
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IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 
Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September 
CONCEPT 
We live in a pivotal moment of international affairs. Globalization and technology are 
disrupting industrial economies; wars in the Middle East are transforming the region; 
unprecedented numbers of people are on the move; the European Union has all but lost 
one of its largest members; and the terrible specter of climate change is becoming all too 
real as polar ice melts at an alarming rate. 
A survey of the world reveals tensions all over: On top of the disorder in the Middle East, 
you have great uncertainty in Europe following Brexit and the continuing conflict in 
Ukraine. In Asia, you have rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula and in the South China 
Sea. In Africa, South Sudan and the Lake Chad basin are sites of serious humanitarian 
concern that transcend national borders. In South America, Venezuela is in the midst of 
dire political and economic crisis. The list could go on and on. The world is changing 
rapidly and governments and international organizations are struggling to adapt. 
How do we understand this new reality? What is changing? And what is not? Do we need 
new maps to reflect the shifting landscape of geopolitics today? Politics change but 
geography is constant. How is migration creating a new Europe? How does China's 
expanding need for energy affect its relation with the world? How does Russia's age-old 
quest for a warm water port still impact its foreign policy? How will Africa's growing 
population and expanding urban economies change its global role? How has the conflict 
in Syria and Iraq upended the status quo of Sykes-Picot? And how can regional and 
multilateral institutions adapt to address the tensions that result from these 
developments? 
The 2017 IPI Salzburg Forum will address these questions and more. It will bring 
together an intimate high-level group of participants from diverse backgrounds, including 
the diplomatic, academic, and intelligence communities as well as current and former 
politicians, journalists, and representatives of civil society - to look at these pertinent 
questions and seek insights into the changing nature of geopolitical relations today with 
a particular focus on Europe and the Middle East. 
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IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 
Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September 
WELCOME TOUR 
Guided tour of the Schloss 
by Daniel Szelenyi, General Manager, Hotel Schloss Leopoldskron 
Sunday, 3 September 2017 I Guests will meet at the Hotel Reception, 19:30 
The International Peace Institute extends a warm welcome to all participants of the IPI 
Salzburg Forum 2017, "Mapping the New Geopolitics: Prisoners of Geography or Lords of 
the Land?" The first day will allow guests to familiarize themselves with the beautiful 
historic Schloss and its surroundings - home to famous theatre director and actor Max 
Reinhardt, and internationally renowned for the Sound of Music. A tour of the rococo 
palace and the estate will provide an opportunity to soak in the spirit of this stimulating 
venue, as well as socialize and exchange thoughts at a welcome dinner. 
Breakfast for the following two days will be provided starting at 7:30am in the Marble 
Hall of the palace. Information and orientation booklets for our guests will be provided 
upon check-in as part of the welcome package. All participants as well as the broader 
public are invited to join the conversation on Twitter, using the hashtag #IPISF17. 
Discussions will be held under the Chatham House Rule. 
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IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 
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OPENING APERITIF 
Get-together of participants and introduction 
Sunday, 3 September 2017 I Great Hall. 20:00 
WELCOME DINNER 
Sunday, 3 September 2017 I Marble Hall. 20:15 
WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION 
Terje Rod-Larsen 
President, International Peace Institute 
KEYNOTE ADDRESS 
Kevin Rudd 
President of the Asia Society Policy Institute and 
Former Prime Minister of Australia 
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IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 
Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September 
SESSION 1 
Mapping the New Geopolitics 
Monday. 4 September 2017 I Library. 09:30 
There is much discussion today of the return of geopolitics. What has changed? What has 
stayed the same? Competition among the great powers remains a decisive factor in 
international affairs, but the terms of that competition is shifting. After a period of post-
Cold War quiescence, Russia is challenging the liberal international order in systematic 
fashion, and a new ambivalence emanating from Washington appears to weaken its 
defense. But the strength of institutions, including the North Atlantic alliance tempers 
claims of the system's demise. Meanwhile, China has stepped into the gap to claim the 
mantle of globalization's champion. In some quarters, Brexit portends the division of 
Europe, in others it is a rallying cry for unity on the Continent Interminable conflict and 
extremism have put in flux the map of the Middle East, but talk of the end of Sykes-Picot 
is premature. Alternative energy and new modes of extraction have diversified energy 
markets, but the importance of the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East for the global 
economy remains essential. This session will provide the opportunity to discuss the big 
picture of geopolitics today. What are the essential points of contest? How can 
policymakers best balance the defense of national interests with the pursuit of global 
common goods? Where are we heading? And how can multilateral institutions best 
respond? 
WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION 
Adam Lupel 
Vice President, International Peace Institute 
CHAIRPERSON 
Terje Rod-Larsen 
President, International Peace Institute 
PANELISTS 
Turki Al Faisal 
Chairman, King Faisal Center for Research 
and Islamic Studies 
Antonio de Aguiar Patriota 
Ambassador of Brazil to Italy and Former Foreign 
Minister of Brazil 
Ana Palacio 
Former Foreign Minister of Spain and Founder of 
Palacio y Asociados 
Kevin Rudd 
President of the Asia Society Policy Institute and 
Former Prime Minister of Australia 
COFFEE BREAK 
Great Hall.11:00 
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IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 
Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September 
SESSION 2 
Europe: Russia, Brexit, and the Future of the European Union 
Monday, 4 September 2017 I Library,11:30 
Three interrelated challenges are prominent in Europe today: the coherence of the EU 
following the Euro crisis and Brexit; the continuing struggle over Ukraine; and the 
political challenges precipitated in part by migration and refugee flows. Following recent 
elections in the UK and France, there is great uncertainty in Britain, but relief and rising 
optimism on the Continent. Still, the conflict in Ukraine persists and relations between 
Russia and the West are tense. Refugees and migrants continue to make the perilous 
journey across the Mediterranean by the thousands, and the populist right remains strong 
in Poland and Hungary—challenging the liberal democratic foundations of the European 
Union. As migrants and refugees continue to arrive in Europe, how will they change the 
demographic composition of Europe, and what political impact will they have? Does 
populism remain a challenge for European institutions? How will the new relation 
between the UK and the EU evolve? What is the endgame in Ukraine? And what impact 
will the Trump administration have on the long-term stability of the North Atlantic 
Alliance? 
CHAIRPERSON 
Natalie Nougayrede 
Foreign Affairs Commentator and Editorial Board Member, 
The Guardian 
PANELISTS 
Paul Bekkers 
Director, Office of the Secretary-General, OSCE 
Snezana Samardiie-Markovie Director-General for Democracy, Council of Europe 
Steven Erlanger 
New York Times Chief Diplomatic Correspondent 
for Europe 
Udo K. Janz 
Former Head of UN High Commissioner of Refugees, 
New York Office 
GROUP PHOTO 
Great Hall. 13:00 
LUNCH 
Marble Hall. 13:15 
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IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 
Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September 
SESSION 3 
Changing Relations in the Middle East and North Africa: What Comes Next? 
Monday. 4 September 2017 I Library, 15:00 
In recent years, the Middle East and North Africa has been riven by internal and external 
rivalries: between Sunnis and Shia, between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and between the US 
and Russia, among others. Conflict and violent extremism has visited untold destruction 
upon Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen; and a diplomatic crisis has divided the Gulf. How will 
these rivalries evolve in the coming years, and what political manifestations will they 
take? What comes next? As Daesh continues to lose territory in the region, how will 
governments respond to its continuing threat? What would constitute a durable peace in 
its wake? How has the refugee crisis transformed the demographics of the region in 
countries like Jordan or Lebanon? And what political impact will that have? As water 
scarcity rises as an issue, will hydro-diplomacy provide a potential area of cooperation or 
of further conflict? How will the changing roles of Turkey and Russia in the region impact 
interstate relations? 
CHAIRPERSON 
Nasra Hassan 
PANELISTS 
Mahmoud Gebril 
Sid Ahmed Ghozali 
Abubakr Qirbi 
Barham Salih 
Senior• Advisor, International Peace Institute 
Former Prime Minister of Libya 
Former Prime Minster of Algeria 
Former Foreign Minister of Yemen 
Former Prime Minister of Regional Government of 
Iraqi Kurdistan, former Deputy Prime Minister, Iraq 
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IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 
I O,rold,4OO, 
SESSION 4 
Closed-Door Session of the Task Force for Regional Cooperation 
in the Middle East 
Monday. 4 September 2017 I Library. 17:30 
PIANO CONCERT 
Performance by Damir Sertic 
Great Hall. 18:00 
COCKTAIL RECEPTION 
Great Hall. 19:15 
DINNER 
Marble Hall. 20:00 
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IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2O17 
Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September 
SIGHTSEEING & DEPARTURE 
Tuesday, 5 September 2017 
Experiencing Salzburg: A Scenic Depth of History 
This year marks the 201st anniversary of when Salzburg became part of Austria. 
On May 1, 1816, as a result of the Treaty of Paris following the Napoleonic Wars, this city 
and region were integrated into Austria. Two centuries later we have the privilege to 
convene the IPI Salzburg Forum in this vibrant and open city that combines the best of the 
old world with the dynamism of the new, in beautiful natural surroundings. 
The International Peace Institute wholeheartedly thanks all participants for their 
contributions to the IPI Salzburg Forum 2017, "Mapping the New Geopolitics: Prisoners 
of Geography or Lords of the Land?". As a pleasant conclusion of this fruitful high-profile 
conference, we suggest our guests indulge in the scenic surroundings of Schloss 
Leopoldskron - especially the beautiful historic city center of Salzburg and stunning views 
from the Hohensalzburg Castle. Touristic information is available at the hotel reception. 
ABOUT IPI 
www.ipinst.org 
The International Peace Institute (IPI) is an independent, international not-for-profit 
think tank dedicated to managing risk and building resilience to promote peace, security, 
and sustainable development. To achieve its purpose, IPI employs a mix of policy 
research, strategic analysis, publishing, and convening. 
The Institute was founded in 1970 as the International Peace Academy (IPA), which 
focused on training military officers and diplomats for United Nations peacekeeping 
operations. In 2008, the organization changed its name to the International Peace 
Institute to reflect its current identity as a research institution that works with and 
supports multilateral institutions, governments, civil society, and the private sector on a 
range of regional and global security challenges. IPI also carries out work in and on Africa, 
the Middle East, Europe, and Central Asia. With a staff from more than twenty countries 
and a broad range of academic fields, IPI has offices facing United Nations Headquarters 
in New York and offices in Vienna and Manama. IPI partners with regional organizations, 
think tanks, universities, and NGOs to conduct research, produce publications, and 
convene meetings in many parts of the world. 
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