EFTA01176904

J.P. Morgan 
The J.P. Morgan View 
Q&A on Greek exit risk 
• Asset Allocation — With little policy support before June 17 Greek elections, 
there is little supporting current risk prices. Cover remaining longs in risk. 
• Economics — Data are tracking Q2 forecasts, but the recent fall in equities 
offsets the impact of lower oil prices. This pushes growth risk to the 
downside. 
• Fixed Income — Stay flat duration, and hold EMU hedges. 
• Equities —Take profit on Dax OW in Europe as risk of shorting bans is rising. 
• Credit — We move underweight credit, and cover our remaining longs in the 
GMOS portfolio. Near-term, we look for relative value in CDS vs. equity. 
• Foreign exchange —We use a 1.22 EUFt/USD fair value forlune on 50/50 
odds of pro vs anti EMU results in the June 17 Greek elections. 
• Commodities —This week's start-up of the Seaway pipeline between the US 
Midwest and Gulf Coast should help narrow the Brent-WTI Spread. 
Risk markets all lurched down as one this week, and safe government bonds 
and the dollar all rose as one, as markets positioned for Lehman-like conta-
gion risk emanating from Greek election risks. Unfortunately, the June 17 date 
of these elections is still a month away, and Euro policy makers do not want to 
give the shop away even before the elections, for fear of strengthening the 
hands of those who are calling for a hard renegotiation with the Troika. That 
means little upside news over the month and markets being driven by posi-
tioning on different post election scenarios. With this outlook, and equities 
now flat on the all-important 6-month lookback, we need to neutralise remain-
ing equity and credit longs. 
Economic news remains broadly neutral and are tracking our Q2 forecasts. Q1 
GDP for both Japan and the Euro area came in better than expected at 0% and 
4.1%, respectively. Forward looking indicators, including the last set of PMIs, 
and recent falls in global equity prices, give us no reason to raise the rest of 
the year, but with high Q1, the 2012 projections automatically move up. Over 
the past month, both oil and global equities are down about 10%. Further 
Greek turmoil would push down again. The equity fall, however, has a higher 
impact on economic activity than the same %fall in oil prices. Hence, we must 
now accept a negative risk bias on the economic outlook. 
• Given the almost exclusive focus of global markets on the evolving Greek 
drama, we provide below a concise Q&A on Greek EMU exit risk. The box on 
p. 2 lists a number of recent reports from JPMorgan analysts on this topic. 
• Why do we care? Greek elections are having many times the impact that the 
recent slowing in Chinese growth is having, despite China's economy being 30 
times larger than the Greek one. The higher impact of local shocks depends on 
how they affect the world's two main "contagion conductors" — banks and 
oil. China has little negative on either, and thus the impact of its growth 
The certifying analyst is indicated by an Ac. See page 7 for analyst 
certification and important legal and regulatory disclosures. 
Global Asset Allocation 
J.P. Morgan Chase Bank NA, 
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. 
May 18.2012 
Jan LoeysAc 
(1-212) 834-5874 
[email protected] 
John Normand 
(44-20) 7325-5222 
[email protected] 
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 
(44-20) 7777-0386 
[email protected] 
Seamus Mac Gorain 
(44-20) 7777-2906 
[email protected] 
Matthew Lehmann 
(44-20) 7777-1830 
malthew.m.lehmannepipmorgan.com 
Leo Evans 
(44-20) 7742-2537 
[email protected] 
YTD returns through May 17 
%. equities are in lighter colour. 
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www.morganmarkets.com 
EFTA01176904

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
J.P, Morgan 
fluctuations are largely local, and on relative pricing. Greek exit risk threatens 
the integrity of the euro financial system, and could thus initiate a Lehman-like 
world crisis. 
• Why have policy makers not neutralised this risk yet? Euro policy makers 
have consistently underestimated the macro impact of what have been really 
micro economic decisions. Telling countries they need to reduce debt through 
austerity and should not depend on others (and surely not the ECB) to repay 
debt, and telling banks they need to rebuild capital all makes eminent sense, 
but has the reverse, unintended impact of destroying markets and economies 
— a colossal inability to understand the paradox of thrift. A divided leadership 
does not help. Only the ECB has more concentrated leadership, but has the 
problem that the ultimate solution is fiscal, not monetary. 
What should policy makers do? Aside from the ultimate need to create fiscal 
and political federalism, one can read the post-Lehman script, where slower 
austerity and monetary financing of forced capital injections in all banks 
prevented the onset of depression. Call it Euro-TARP. This does not consti-
tute core EMU throwing good money after bad, but, to this analyst, is invest-
ing at a great entry price. In addition, why does the ECB not intervene to push 
the euro down? The world would likely applaud an ECB that focuses on 
growth instead of reducing moral hazard. 
What are policy makers likely to do? Very little before June 17, not to tip their 
hand to Greek voters. A new government that is willing to work to remain an 
EMU member, will likely receive some leniency and assistance. A new gov't 
that instead unilaterally abrogates previous agreements to repair Greece's 
creditworthiness would face stubborn Euro leaders, who would be forced to 
circle the wagons to protect the rest of EMU against capital flight. Initially 
policy makers would be reactive, providing funding to banks and countries 
where markets have closed. At some point, it will dawn on them that a massive 
euro-TARP provides the best defence per buck. 
• How? A Greek exit is in neither side's true interest. It would thus probably not 
be a clean, surgical decision, but more the result of an escalation of acrimoni-
ous actions and counteractions that bring both sides to a point neither really 
wanted to be. One can imagine a scenario where a leftist government unilater-
ally stops austerity and debt payments could easily see the rest of EMU 
stopping payments. A Greek government running out of cash would instead 
write IOUs, which would soon end up as a new currency running alongside 
old EMU bills. 
What impact? Our economists judge that Greek exit would push Euro GDP 
down a further 2%. Market consensus is converging on 50/50 odds of exit, but 
we do not sense full capitulation yet on long risk exposures, nor a dominance 
of risk undenveights. There would be significant further downside on equities 
and credit if a chaotic Greek exit were to unfold, likely double digit in the case 
of equities. Still, given the memory of the Lehman aftermath, global policy 
makers would likely react more decisively, and thus limit the downside. The 
euro would approach parity versus the dollar. 
Fixed income 
• Bonds rallied for the fourth week in a row, with German Bunds and UK gilts 
2012 global GDP growth forecasts: JPMorgan 
and Consensus 
4.0 
3.5 
3.0 
2.5 
2.0 
1.5 
Ja 11 Apr-11 Jul 11 Oct-11 Jan l2 Apr.12 
Soiree JP. Meson Ccosensus Ecercmcs.Ozoseress Eceo:mcs 
Wonts a'o Ns reyais aro commis Ow 
aoca3e, uwg he 
sore yes wing USO GDP sorts fel se use lx of unn gtbS 
Fungi laecasi. 
Research on a Greek exit from EMU 
More thoughts on a Greek exit process and timing. David 
Mackie. May 18. 2012 
The macro consequences of a Greek exit. David Mackie. 
May 18. 2012 
The gory details of Greek EMU exit. Targel2 and the ECB, 
Malcom Barr. May IT. 2012 
Global implications from a Greek exit from EMU. 
Conference call. replay +1 203 369 0254. passcode 7972 
FX Markets Weekly - A roadmap and roadblocks to EMU 
exit. John Normand. May 11.2012 
Global Fixed Income Markets Wooly. Pavan Wadhwa. 
Kedran Panageas et al.. May 11. 2012 
Flows and Liquidity: Greek Contagion, Nikos 
Panigirtzetfou et al.. May 11. 2012 
Alternate States: EMU Breakup. Seamus Mac Gorain. 
Sep 8. 2011 
More details in ... 
Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley 
Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce 
Kasman. et al. 
US Fixed Income Markets. Terry Belton and Srini 
Ramaswamy 
Global Fixed Income Markets. Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio 
8assi 
Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy. Joyce Chang 
Key trades and Ask: Emerging Market Equity Strategy. 
Adrian Mont et al. 
Flows and Liquidity. Nikos Panigirtzegiou et S. 
May 18.2012 
2 
EFTA01176905

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
J.P.Morgan 
hitting new yield lows, the latter boosted by a relatively dovish BoE Inflation 
Report. We remain flat duration overall, reluctant both to chase yields at these 
lows, and to take bearish positions with the Greek political outlook still so 
uncertain. Nor is the economic data providing a clear steer either way. 
• With the Greek election looming, investors are likely to remain cautious unless 
the polls swing clearly towards the mainstream parties. Given the likely cata• 
strophic impact of a Greek EMU exit, we still see merit in EMU hedges, includ-
ing swap spread wideners, German curve flatteners, and modest intra-EMU 
spread wideners. The possibility of a reactivation of the ECB's bond purchases 
is one factor keeping spreads in check, though the ECB's halfhearted approach 
to this programme in the past suggests it would provide only a temporary balm. 
• EM local yields have backed up in the past few weeks, even as DM yields 
made new lows. EM is now about flat to DM for the year. EM local bond funds 
are still seeing modest inflows, though hard currency EM bonds continue to be 
more favoured. While remaining broadly neutral duration in EM, we add an 
underweight in Indonesia, where the central bank, the main bond buyer over 
the past nine months, has signalled a less supportive stance. 
Equities 
• Country trades constitute the core of our equity portfolio. OW US vs. Euro 
equities and OW MSCI EM Asia vs. MSCI AC World are our preferred calls. 
The first is justified by the escalation of the euro debt crisis and the impact it 
will have on the euro area economy. Last year, the euro debt crisis caused a 
dramatic decline in euro area economic activity in H2, and unless the Greek 
issue is resolved quickly, this year's second half will look more like last year's. 
• OW EM Asia equities is predicated on an expectation that Chinese policy 
makers will announce more stimulus via a FAI program in the summer, ahead of 
autumn's leadership change. Last week's disappointing data in China have 
raised the probability of that happening. 
• We tactically exit our OW in DAX vs. Eurostoxx.50. The economic divergence 
between Germany and the rest of the Euro area is still in place and perhaps it is 
widening as financial conditions get tighter for periphery. But we see a high 
risk that a short sale ban will be introduced in Spain or Italy given sharp 
declines in bank stocks. When that happened last August, investors were 
forced to use DAX futures to reduce their exposure to Euro area equities, 
causing sharp DAX under performance. 
Credit 
• The sell-off continues and credit, which had been outperforming, has now 
joined in with Greece again driving prices. Against this uncertain backdrop, we 
close our remaining directional trades in the GMOS portfolio. 
• Our colleagues in US credit moved to underweight US HG with a spread target 
of 235bp for JULI and 125bp for CDX.IG given the potential fallout from 
impending events. They also recommend CDX.IG vs. the S&P500, given the 
sharp sell-off in the former (see Eric Beinstein, CMOS) a call shared by our 
European team for iTraxx Main vs. EuroStoxx (see Tina Zhang, The State of 
Play). 
More details in... 
EM Caporals Outlook and Strategy, Warren Mar et al. 
US Crater Markets Outlook and Strategy. Eric Beinstein et al. 
High Weld Credit Markets Weekly. Peter Acciavatti at al. 
European Credit Outlook B Strategy. Steven Dulake et al. 
Emerging Markets Cross Product Strategy Weekly. Eric 
Beinstein et al. 
May18,2012 
3 
EFTA01176906

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
J.P, Morgan 
Foreign Exchange 
• For the second time in six months, Greece's EMU exit seems imminent. 
Although we always expected the next Greek government to renegotiate the 
troika accord and for such tensions to create volatility this summer, Syriza's 
agenda is much more extreme than in our previous base case. If the Radical 
Left obtains an outright majority on June 17 and implements its agenda, it 
could initiate a chain of events resulting in its withdrawal or de facto ejection 
from EMU. Significant influence in a coalition government could also deliver 
this outcome. Given these risks, we are revising down EUR/USD forecasts to 
reflect intensification of the current crisis. New targets for all currencies will be 
released on Monday, May 21 in our monthly Key Currency Views. 
• For EUR/USD, 1.22 is fair target for June. This forecast reflects the probabil-
ity-weighted outcome of various scenarios outlined last week. Following fresh 
elections in June, the benign scenario envisions an outright victory by or 
coalition of centrist parties, minor renegotiation of the troika program. and 
orderly restructuring of official debt if Greece achieves its fiscal targets. EUR/ 
USD would revert to its earlier range in the low 1.30s in such an environment, 
since Europe has a stronger balance of payments position than the US and 
investors are very short the currency. The adverse scenario envisions an 
outright victory by the Radical Left or significant influence in a coalition and 
declaration of a debt moratorium, which the troika would respond to by ending 
the financing program and denying Greece access to ECB borrowing. If Greece 
then introduced the drachma, EUR/USD would probably decline to 1.10 due to 
widespread capital flight from the region. If instead the government back-
tracked and re-engaged the troika given that 80% of the electorate favours 
retaining the euro, the currency would stabilise around 1.20. For a fuller 
discussion of EMU break-up issues, see also Answers to 10 common ques-
tions on EMI! break-up, Normand and Sandilya, Dec 7, 2011. 
• Taking 50/50 odds to a centrist versus leftist government and 50/50 odds to 
the drachma (chaos scenario) versus backtracking (epiphany scenario) yields 
a baseline 1.22 forecast for Q2. We remain short EUR, GBP, CAD and AUD in 
anticipation of further deleveraging. 
Commodities 
• Commodities continued to drift lower this week, down another 2%. Oil and 
base metals fell most, offsetting strong gains for agriculture. Oil and metals are 
suffering as the Euro crisis has escalated. Greece is not a significant consumer 
of commodities, but the possibility of a material contraction in Europe and 
high uncertainty raise the risk of a more systemic event threatening commod-
ity demand globally. For example, Europe is China's largest export market and 
China is the most important country for commodity demand growth globally. 
• Yesterday the Seaway pipeline between Cushing in the US Midwest and the 
US Gulf Coast started up. This was one of the short term events we had 
expected to help narrow the spread between Brent and WTI as it will alleviate 
some of the bottleneck of oil that has built up at Cushing. We continue to be 
short this spread as we think it will narrow further to around $7bbl in Q3. 
However, there remains a risk that US Midwest and Canadian production, 
which flows into Cushing, increases more rapidly than expected which would 
somewhat offset the impact of the Seaway pipeline. 
FX weekly change vs USD 
2.0% 
1.0% 
0.0% 
-1.0% 
-2.0% 
USD .1W EUR GBP CHF CAD AUD 
TWI 
Sotrce.J.P IC= 
More details in ... 
FX Markets Weekly. John Normand el al. 
Commodity Maikets Outlook & Strategy. Cohn 
Fenton et al. 
Orl Markets Monthly. Lawrence Eagles et al. 
Metals Review and Outlook, Michael Jansen 
Global Metals Quarterly. Michael Jansen 
May18,2012 
4 
EFTA01176907

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
J.P. Morgan 
Interest rates 
Current 
Jun-12 
Sep-12 
Dec-12 
Mar-13 
YTD Return' 
United States 
Fed funds rate 
0.125 
0.125 
0.125 
0.125 
0.125 
10-year yields 
1.72 
2.40 
2.50 
2.50 
2.50 
1.4% 
Euro area 
Rd rate 
1.00 
1.00 
1.00 
1.00 
1.00 
10-year yields 
1.43 
1.80 
2.00 
2.00 
2.00 
2.9% 
United Kingdom 
Repo rate 
0.50 
0.50 
0.50 
0.50 
0.50 
10-year yields 
1.83 
2.55 
2.55 
2.40 
2.40 
0.5% 
Japan 
Overnight call role 
0.05 
0.05 
0.05 
0.05 
0.05 
10-year yields 
0.83 
1.15 
1.05 
1.05 
1.15 
1.3% 
GBI-EM hedged in S 
Yield -Global Diversified 
6.44 
6.30 
2.1% 
Credit Markets 
Current 
Index 
YTD Return' 
US high grade (bp over UST( 
218 
JPMorgan JULI Portia Spread to Treasury 
3.9% 
Euro high grade (bp over Euro gov) 
280 
Elmo( Euro Corporate Index 
4.1% 
USD high yield (bp vs. UST) 
666 
JPMorgan Global high Yield Index STW 
5.8% 
Euro high yield (bp over Euro gov) 
925 
Eton Euro HY Index 
10.0% 
BASIC (bp vs. UST) 
404 
EMS' Global 
4.4% 
EM Corporates (bp vs. UST) 
432 
JPM EM Corporates (CEMBI) 
5.6% 
Commodities 
Quarterly Avenges 
Current 
1202 
1203 
12Q4 
1301 
GSCI Index 
no Return' 
Brent (SW) 
107 
112 
120 
125 
125 
Energy 
0.6% 
Gold (S!oz) 
1589 
1750 
1850 
1875 
Precious Metals 
1.5% 
Copper (S/metric ton) 
7695 
8150 
8575 
9000 
Indusbial Metals 
2.7% 
Corn (3/13u) 
Foreign Exchange 
6.35 
6.35 
5.85 
5.65 
Current 
Jun-12 
Sep-12 
Dec-12 
Mar-13 
Agriculture 
.5.3% 
3m cash YTD Return' 
Index 
In USD 
EUR/USD 
1.27 
1.34 
1.36 
1.36 
1.36 
EUR 
-1.4% 
USOLIPY 
79.1 
78 
80 
78 
80 
JPY 
32% 
GBP/USD 
1.58 
1.61 
1.62 
1.62 
1.62 
GBP 
2.4% 
USCUBRL 
2.02 
1.90 
1.90 
1.90 
1.90 
BRL 
-4.1% 
USD/CNY 
6.33 
6.20 
6.20 
6.10 
6.10 
CNY 
0.3% 
USD/KRW 
1173 
1120 
1100 
1090 
1090 
KRW 
0.1% 
USD/TRY 
1.84 
1.75 
1.75 
1.70 
1.70 
TRY 
6.6% 
YTD Return 
Equities 
Current 
(local ccy) 
US 
Europe 
Sector Allocation 
YTD 
YTD 
Japan 
YTD 
EM 
YTD (3) 
SW 
1306 
4.6% 
Energy 
-6.3% 
-9.9% 
-6.6% 
-5.5% 
Nasdaq 
2817 
7.7% 
Mated& 
-1.2% 
-0.9% 
0.1% 
-5.2% 
Topix 
726 
3.7% 
Industrials 
23% 
2.2% 
2.6% 
3.6% 
FTSE 100 
5268 
-3.8% 
Discretionary 
8.9% 
11.4% 
10.4% 
2.7% 
IASCI Eurozone 
126 
-1.8% 
Staples 
4.6% 
3.9% 
6.6% 
5.2% 
MSCI Europe' 
994 
-0.8% 
Healthcare 
5,6% 
1.6% 
-0.3% 
9.1% 
MSCI EMS' 
921 
1.5% 
Finandals 
7.5% 
-2.6% 
77.3% 
1.5% 
Brazil Bovesoa 
54513 
-3.9% 
Information Tech. 
9.5% 
0.5% 
3.7% 
10.9% 
Hang Seng 
18952 
3.3% 
Telecommunications 
8.1% 
-8.9% 
-4.5% 
2.2% 
Shanghai SE 
2345 
8.2% 
'Levels/returns as of May 17.2012 
Local currency except MSCI EM S 
Utddies 
-0.4% 
-5.3% 
-4.6% 
0.9% 
Overall 
4.6% 
-0.8% 
3.7% 
15% 
SOurOF 810:crtgr9, Dalailream, EIES, Slaidied a Pon Situ**. J P Linen 'giros 
May18.2012 
5 
EFTA01176908

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
J. P Morgan 
Global Economic Outlook Summary 
Real GDP 
%Cast a )Sal ago 
Real GDP 
%crier preacts penod sax 
Consumer prices 
%CIO, a y8313)0 
2011 
2012 
2013 
4Q11 
1Q12 
2Q12 
3012 
4Q12 
1013 
2Q13 
4011 
2Q12 
4Q12 
2Q13 
The Americas 
United States 
1.7 
24 
22 
3.0 
2.2 
2.5 
3.0 
2.0 
1.5 
2.3 
3.3 
2.0 
1.8 
1.6 
Canada 
2.5 
2.3 
2.5 
1.8 
2.1 
2.6 
2.3 
2.4 
2.7 
2.4 
2.7 
1.7 
1.7 
2.0 
Latil America 
4.3 
3.7 
4.0 
2.9t 
4 t 
4.0 
4.5 
4.3 
4.4 
3.8 
7.2 
6.4 
62 
6.9 
Argentna 
8.9 
4.0 
3.9 
3.2 
4.8 
-2.0 
8.0 
8.0 
3.0 
4.0 
9.6 
10.0 
10.0 
11.0 
Brabi 
2.9 
2.9 
4.5 
1.3 
li
4.5 
5.7 
5.7 
4.5 
4.5 
6.7 
5.0 
5.0 
5.3 
Chile 
6.0 
5.0 
4.5 
8.2 
5.7 t 
4.9 
4.6 
4.7 
4.5 
4.4 
4.0 
42 
3.9 
3.4 
Colombia 
5.9 
5.0 
5.0 
5.4 
4.5 
4.9 
4.1 
3.0 
5.7 
6.0 
3.9 
3.6 
3.3 
3.0 
Ecwador 
7.8 
4.0 
4.0 
4.1 
an 
3.5 
4.0 
4.0 
4.0 
4.0 
5.5 
5.3 
4.7 
4.7 
Mexico 
3.9 
3.8 
3.5 
2.9t 
5.3t 
3.9 
2.0 
3.2 
4.9 
2.8 
3.5 
42 
4.0 
3.8 
Peru 
6.9 
5.5 
7.0 
2.8 
5.2 
5.8 
6.2 
7.3 
8.0 
8.0 
4.5 
3.9 
3.1 
3.0 
Venezuela 
4.2 
4.0 
1.0 
5.2 t 
10.9 t 
Q.Q 
4.0 
3.0 
0.0 
0.0 
28.5 
23.9 
23.4 
31.7 
Asia/Pacific 
S 
-0.7 
2.51 
1.3 
0.1 t 
4.1 t 
2.0 
1.4 
1.2 
1.0 
1.2 
-0.3 
0.1 
0.1 
-0.1 
Australia 
2.0 
3.0 
3.3 
1.7 
3.1 
1.9 
3.7 
4.1 
4.5 
2.0 
3.1 
2.5 
3.3 
3.0 
New Zealand 
1.4 
2.9 
21 
1.4 
II 
2.1 
3.7 
3.0 
0.9 
3.4 
1.8 
12 
23 
2.7 
Asa ex Japan 
7.0 
6.3 
7.0 
4.5 
8.0 
6.3 
7.0 
7.1 
7.0 
7.0 
4.9 
3.8 
4.3 
4.8 
China 
9.2 
8.0 
8.9 
8.8 
6.8 
7.0 
9.1 
9.5 
9.1 
8.7 
4.6 
32 
3.6 
4.5 
Hong Kong 
5.0 
2.4 
42 
1.6 
1.6 
10 
6.0 
6.5 
3.0 
3.0 
5.7 
4.4 
3.5 
3.4 
India 
7.0 
7.1 
7.3 
3.8 
13.0 
5.5 
6.3 
6.5 
6.7 
7.5 
8.4 
7.8 
82 
8.5 
Indonesia 
6.5 
5.3 
5.5 
8.8 
4.8 
5.0 
4.5 
5.0 
5.5 
5.5 
4.1 
3.9 
7.4 
7.3 
Korea 
3.6 
3.3 
4.0 
1.3 
3.7 
4.0 
4.5 
4.0 
4.0 
4.0 
4.0 
2.6 
2.9 
3.5 
Malaysia 
5.1 
3.9 
32 
4.8 
5.0 
2.0 
2.0 
2.5 
4.0 
4.5 
32 
2.6 
22 
1.8 
Philippines 
3.7 
4.3 
4.8 
3.5 
43 
4.9 
5.7 
4.9 
4.5 
4.5 
4.7 
3.9 
4.0 
4.0 
Singapore 
4.9 
3.7 
4.0 
-2.5 
10.0 t 
4.91 
4.5t 
3.2 t 
3.21 
4.5 
5.5 
4.9 t 
31 t 
3.0 t 
Taiwan 
4.0 
2.4 
5.0 
-0.6 
1.0 
4.8 
6.5 
5.8 
4.5 
4.6 
1.4 
1.3 
1.7 
1.2 
Thailand 
AfricalMiddle East 
0.1 
5.1 
3.5 
36.4 
45.0 
20.0 
2.0 
0.5 
5.0 
6.5 
4.0 
3.7 
3.5 
3.2 
Israel 
4.8 
2.9 
44 
3.2 
3.0 t 
3.2 
6.1 
7.4 
4.5 
2.8 
2.5 
2.3 
2.5 
2.1 
South Africa 
Europe 
3.1 
2.51 
3.6 
3.2 
2,0 1 
2.4 1 
3.51 
4.5 ? 
3.7 1 
3.2 1 
6.1 
6.1 ? 
6.0 1 
5.8 1 
Euro area 
1.5 
-0.3 t 
OA 
-1.2 
0.1 t 
-0.8 
-0.5 
0.3 
0.5 
0.5 
2.9 
2.6 
2.4 t 
1.8 
Germany 
3.1 
1.11* 
1.4 
-0.7 
2.1 t 
1.0 
0.8 
1.3 
1.5 
1.5 
2.6 
2.3 
2.1 
1.8 
France 
1.7 
0.3 
0.7 
0.3 1 
0.2 t 
IQ 
0.3 
0.5 
0.8 
1.0 
2.6 
2.6 
2.3 
1.9 
Italy 
0.5 
-2.01 
-0.7 
-321 
•2.5 
-1.5 
-1.0 
-0.5 
-0.5 
3.7 
3.8 
42 
3.8 
Norway 
2.7 
14 
1.8 
2.5 
0.0 
0.0 
1.0 
1.0 
2.0 
2.5 
0.9 
0.9 
10 
1.7 
Sweden 
4.0 
-0.3 
1.7 
4.4 
-0.5 
-0.5 
0.5 
1.0 
2.0 
2.3 
2.3 
1.1 
1.1 
1.5 
United Kingdom 
0.7 
0.1 
1.9 
-1.2 
-0.8 
-1.0 
2.5 
1.5 
2.0 
2.0 
4.6 
3.0 
2.7 
2.4 
Emerging Europe 
4.8 
2.7 
3.4 
4.21 
2.4 t 
•1.01 
2.61 
3.3 t 
3.6 t 
3.1 
60 
4.91 
53 
6.01 
Bulgaria 
1.7 
1.01 
23 
Czech Republic 
1.7 
-02 
0.9 
-0.5 
•3.91 
•1.0 
1.0 
2.2 
1.1 
-1.7 
2.4 
2.7 
2.9 
2.5 
Hungary 
1.7 
-1.2 1 
1.0 1 
0.0 1 
3.11 
-0.5 
0.0 
0.8 
1.0 1 
1.5 
4.1 
5.8 
5.9 
3.8 
Poland 
4.3 
3.01 
3.0 
4.5 
2.31 
2.0 
2.31 
3.0 
3.0 
3.0 
4.6 
3.9 
3.5 
2.8 
Romania 
2.5 
0.8 
2.7 
-0.8 
•0.4t 
-1.5 
0.8 
2.4 
2.5 
3.0 
3.4 
3.3 
4.4 
4.0 
Russia 
4.3 
3.7 
3.7 
5.91 
4.6t 
•2.01 
3.51 
4.01 
4.5t 
4.0 
6.8 
3.71 
6.01 
6.61 
Turkey 
8.5 
2.5 
4.5 
92 
9.0 
6.8 
8.8 
Global 
2.6 
2.3 t 
2.6 
1.6 t 
2.7t 
2.0 1 
2.6 
2.5 
2.5t 
2.6 
3.6 
2.7 
2.7 
2.7 
Developed markets 
13 
1.3 t 
IL 
0.8 
1.5 t 
1.0 
1.5 
1.3 
1.3 
1.5 
2.8 
2.0 
1.91 
1.6 
Emerging markets 
5.8 
4.9 
5.5 
4.0 
6.1 t 
4.41 
5.6 1 
5.8 t 
5.7 
5.5 
5.7 
4.7 
5.0 
5.5 
wow 
May18,2012 
6 
EFTA01176909

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
J.P.Morgan 
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EFTA01176910

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J.P, Morgan 
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EFTA01176911