EFTA01175987

••, 
J. P Morgan 
he J.P. Morgan View 
Seven puzzles 
Asset Allocation — No changes. Long equities and credit vs bonds and cash 
over next 3 months. Signals for next few weeks seem quite neutral. 
• Economics — No forecast changes, but weaker data bias our 2.5% Q2 US 
forecast to the lower 2's. 
• Fixed Income— We recommend bearish money market positions. 
Equities — Earnings expectations momentum favours US vs other regions. 
Credit — We stay overweight senior financials and LTII bonds. 
Foreign exchange —Low FX vol to stay. Focus trades on mean reversion. 
Commodities — We expect the spread to continue to narrow and stay long 
Dec-12 WTI vs. Dec-12 Brent with a S5ibbl target. 
• In a week where a lot of price screens are reading UNCH (unchanged) and 
economic forecasts have not moved, we would like to focus on some longer-
term issues — not views, nor concerns, but things that puzzle many of us. For 
each, we provide our best explanation, while admitting they remain puzzles. 
Each requires a much longer and deeper study. 
Why has neither Greece nor Germany left EMU, yet? Or even, why did they 
ever get in? The crisis has revealed the cost of giving up one's currency. 
Resolution requires massive deflation in the periphery and massive funding 
from the core. The reason countries joined into EMU and have not (yet) left is 
that monetary union was planned as the first step towards a political union —
a US of E. The cost of abandoning EMU is not merely related to capital flight 
and creation of a new currency, but is paramount to ditching European 
integration, and moving back to the bad old days of a divided and quarrelsome 
Europe. EMU members will likely do everything they can to keep the union 
together, even as they will need more crises to push them that way. 
Why has the euro not collapsed, yet, given a recession and EMU break-up 
risk? The EMU periphery cannot devalue against the core, but would greatly 
benefit from a drop in the euro. The answer is likely that currencies are relative 
prices, and the fiscal situation in the US, UK, and Japan is as bad as in the 
Euro area, even as the latter has problems with internal funding. Each of these 
four currencies has fallen dramatically against the smaller GI0 countries that 
are in better shape (CAD, CHF, AUD, NOK). The Euro area also has no 
external deficit, and funding problems may have led to capital repatriation, 
supporting the euro. 
Why are US HG credit spreads still near recession levels? US HG remains 
about 200bp above USTs, a spread level that before Lehman was only seen 
The certifying analyst is indicated by an AC. See page 7 for analyst 
certification and important legal and regulatory disclosures. 
Global Asset Allocation 
J.P. Morgan Chase Bank NA, 
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. 
Apr 2O, 2O12 
Jan Loeyee 
John Normand 
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 
Seamus Mac Gorain 
Matthew Lehmann 
Leo Evans 
YTD returns through Apr 19 
%. equities are in lighter colour. 
Taco' I
MSC' ESA I 
S8P500 I 
MSCI AC World 
 
EM $ Corp. 
US High Yield 
EMBIG fi 
EM FX 
MSCI Europe'  
Gold fly 
GSCI TR 'MI 
US High Grade 
EM Local Bonds•' I♦ 
US Fixed Income ■ 
Global Gov Bonds" ■ 
Ems* Fixed Income' 
US cash I 
10 
IS 
Serve: IP. Wpm Sbortcq. Ratan USD 'Leal 
unary. "Heed Et USD. En And Income z Itzu 
Mu. US IC. HY. EMIG and EMS Cap alt JP/1 odces. EU 
AthELF41. int. 
www.morganmarkets.com 
EFTA01175987

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
J.P. Morgan 
around recessions. We are almost 3 year out of the last recession. Much of 
this puzzle goes away when we take out financials, with nonfinancials HG 
spreads trading near historic averages, even as they are somewhat wide for 
this point in the cycle (charts opposite). But this explanation moves the puzzle 
to why Financials are so wide against history, especially given stronger capital 
and other regulations that are making banks much safer than before. The only 
likely explanation is that the Lehman crisis changed investors perceptions 
away from the old view that banks are too big to fail. The EMU crisis is 
keeping bank risk elevated. 
• Who do some many investors pile into safe assets that offer no real return 
after taxes and inflation? The average yield on all global bonds now stands at 
2.4%. Managers tell us that the end investors care most about capital preser-
vation. If so, they are forgetting about taxes and inflation — global headline 
CPI was +3.8% oya in 2011. Two explanations come to mind. Institutional 
investors are steered away from equities, as regulators are forcing them to 
judge the risk on equities, which are long-term investments, on the basis of 
short-term volatility (I-year), despite equities being long term assets. G4 
insurers and pension funds have been buying $6 of bonds for every SI of 
equity over the past 6 years. The puzzle is greater for unregulated end inves-
tors, in particular retail. YTD, funds and ETFs have seen the same 6-for-1 
bonds to equity inflows. Widespread fear and persistent uncertainty are likely 
behind this puzzle. 
Why no deflation, given global slack, nor rise in inflation expectations given 
debt demonetization? Simple output gap models would indeed have suggested 
a dramatic drop in global inflation, if not outright deflation. We did not get 
this, showing there is clear downward rigidity to nominal wages, and also less 
useable slack than we thought. These give this puzzle a name but are not an 
explanation. A better explanation could be ultra easy monetary policy that 
killed deflation fears. But why have these not turned into inflation fears? Part 
of the explanation is that central bankers have done a tremendously good job 
in convincing us they are only combating deflation and will react decisively 
when inflation emerges. And the world wants them to be right. 
Why are commodities up 65% since the recession, while the world economy 
is growing below capacity? The answer is likely an application of the hog 
cycle. During the recession, commodity prices cratered and project financing 
evaporated. Commodity producers cancelled investment projects, greatly 
restraining future supply growth. Demand growth since the recession has 
outstripped weak supply growth, pushing up commodity prices. But with 
much higher commodity prices and easier funding, producers are investing 
and capacity is increasing. The hog cycle is not dead. 
• Why do Japanese investors keep buying their own public sector debt, which 
is racing to 250% of GDP by 2015, twice the level that got Greece in trou-
ble? Part of the explanation is what we call financial repression, where the 
government puts pressure on domestic institutional investors, frequently 
through regulations. But much of the explanation is likely deflation, which 
creates acceptable real return to bonds, that are not taxed. The eventual JGB 
crisis must await 2015 or later, when demographics drive the country into an 
external balance that requires foreign borrowing, something that will not be 
possible at current yields. 
Long-term US industrials spread to treasuries 
Barclays Industrial Intermediate yield Barclays 
Government Intermediate yield 
7 
% 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
0 
Industrials 
73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 
Scutce Ovate= 
Long-term US financials spread to treasuries 
Barclays Financial Intermediate yield • Barclays 
Government Intermediate yield 
10 
8 
6 
4 
2 
0 
73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 
Saxe: Dolan= 
MOM details In ... 
Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman and David Hensley 
Global Markers Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce 
Kasman, et al. 
US Fixed Income Mathes, Terry Belton and Srini 
Ramaswamy 
Global Fixed Income Markets, Pavan Wadhwa and Fablo 
Bassi 
Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy. Joyce Chang 
Key trades and risk: Emerging Market Equity Strategy. 
Adrian Mowat et al. 
Flows and Liquidity. Nikos Panigifizoglou et al. 
Apr20,2012 
2 
EFTA01175988

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
J.P. Morgan 
Fixed income 
Expected change in DM policy rates 
• Bonds are flattish on the week, but with Canada and the UK notable 
%. I yly 015 tales less policy rate (less 1m 0IS 
rate for Gun)) 
underperformers, as their central banks signalled a more hawkish outlook. 
Canada has weathered the crisis better than most in DM, and the Bank of 
0.6 
Canada now envisages full employment by mid-2013. There is a limit to how far 
monetary policy in Canada can diverge from the US, but even so we agree with 
the market's move to price a 4Q12 hike, and expect more to come in 2013. 
OA 
02 
0 
.02 
• The UK is in a far more difficult position. Growth is still anaemic, but inflation 
remains stubbornly above target, having surprised to the upside again this 
week, dampening the prospects of more QE. Persistently high inflation means 
.0.6 
0.6 
we continue to favour short-dated UK linkers. And though we think hikes are 
a long way off in the UK, we recommend money market steepeners, expecting 
a greater risk premium to be priced into the curve (see GFIMS WO. 
s 
C)
‘16 
Sauce. Bk>o—berq JP. Mega, 
• With short rates so low, similar arguments for greater money market risk premia 
apply to varying degrees in many developed markets. For example, we think 
Fed Funds implied rates do not fully reflect the risk that unemployment will 
fall faster than the FOMC expects, and advise shorts in late 2014 Fed Funds. 
• In the Euro area, French bonds were weak ahead of the first round of the 
Presidential election. Spain outperformed Italy, and relative supply means we 
expect that move to continue: Spain has aggressively frontloaded its bond 
issuance this year, while Italy has not. 
Equities 
2012 
0% 
.5% 
EPS forecast change since Sept 30th 
a 
• The US reporting season is on track to post another positive surprise with the 
•10% -
S&P500 Q1 EPS up 5% vs. the bottom analysts' expectation at the beginning 
of the month. In absolute terms there is little reason to celebrate, though, as 
both Revenues-Per-Share and Earnings-Per-Share are down Q4 and up only 
modestly from a year ago. But this weakness, the result of weak global growth 
and higher commodity prices, is well telegraphed. 
•15% 
•20% 
•25% 
-
- 
SW500 
MSCI EM Eurostoxx 
T0PIX 
• This decent positive earnings surprise has failed to boost equity markets, 
50 
though. We believe uncompelling macro data and continued uncertainty 
around the Euro debt crisis and China are making investors reluctant to buy 
equities despite the 5% correction. Indeed the equity fund flow picture 
remains weak with US equity funds and ETFs seeing large outflows of -S7.9bn 
this week, making this the fifth consecutive week of outflows. 
Saxe. Dalotearn13(.5 
• Last week, we reiterated our OW in US equities. We mention the headwind.% 
from the Euro debt crisis and the Chinese hard landing fears as reasons to be 
more cautious in Europe and EM. But there is another reason that makes the 
US look better: earnings momentum. This factor has been largely behind the 
outperformance of US equities last year and the top chart suggests that it is 
More details in ... 
still in place. Analysts have cut their 2012 US EPS projections by 3% over the 
EM Corporate Outlook and Strategy. Warren Mar el al. 
past six months, but much more in the rest of the world. 
US Credit Markets Outlook and Strategy, Eric Bernstein et al. 
Credit 
Mph Vied Credit Markets Weekly, Peter Acciavani et al. 
• Credit spreads were a bit of a mixed picture this week. CDS mostly widened, 
European Credit Outlook & Strategy. Steven Dulake et al. 
equities gained, and bonds went both ways. Thus far, earnings season is 
Emerging Markets Cross Product Strategy Weekty. Eric 
providing some upside surprises, which, in light of the weaker tone in US 
economic data of late, helps reaffirm that corporate credit fundamentals are 
Beinstein el al. 
Apr20,2012 
3 
EFTA01175989

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
J.P. Morgan 
solid, if not improving. In particular, large financials have generally surpassed 
expectations in terms of revenues and credit losses. On the flip-side, rating 
reviews hang over banks and last week Moody's pushed the process out by 
roughly a month (to begin mid May). We suspect that the impact of the 
downgrades will be less severe than the market anticipates for three main 
reasons. 1) Haircuts applied by the ECB are not particularly sensitive to any 
one agencies' ratings. 2) In the aggregate, downgrades will already be priced 
in spreads and 3) the delay in publishing new ratings gives more lime to shore 
up collateral to meet derivative requirements if necessary. The positive impact 
of term liquidity provided by the LTRO is a much more important driver of 
spreads and we stay overweight senior financiaLs and Lower Tier II bonds 
(See Alan Bowe, The Great Batik Downgrade Pan 110. 
Foreign Exchange 
• The dollar continues to traverse three-month ranges on below-average 
volumes, flattening volatility to its lowest level in four years (VXY Global at 
9.8%) and creating one of the stingiest return environments for FX managers 
since the Lehman crisis. We have discussed previously the reasons for this 
pattern: a collection of low-intensity, local dramas which are largely offsetting, 
including funding stress and political risk in Europe (USD positive); a 
sidelined Fed (USD negative); China's Ql deceleration (USD positive) but its 
Q2 promise of further stimulus (USD negative). Even though currencies are the 
asset class most sensitive to regional divergences, as FX is simply a relative 
price, this abundance of crosscurrents has become too much of a good thing 
for anyone but the best of range-traders. 
• The alternative strategy is usually to earn carry, which would be as profitable 
in FX as in credit were it not for the fact that most high-yield currencies belong 
to commodity exporters (so exposed to China) or central banks inclined to 
intervene aggressively (Brazil). Given these offsets it is unsurprising that the 
trade-weighted USD continues to weave between 80 and 82 on our index 
(JPMQUSD) and 78 and 81 on the DXY. The case for a range break remains 
weak since the chain of events which would convert a local event to a global 
one requires too many things to all go right (Fed tightening) or all go wrong 
(China, Europe). French elections could confuse an always-complicated 
European situation in Q2. If the euro will break the 1.30. 1.34 range which has 
held for most of the year, it should do so this quarter. By comparison China, 
Japan and the US provide fewer triggers for large currency moves over the 
next few weeks. 
Commodities 
• Commodities were down again this week, led, lower by energy as Brent fell 
around 3%, offsetting a 1% gain for WTI. The spread between the two oil 
benchmarks has narrowed significantly over the past few weeks from $20/bbl 
at the beginning of April to around $15/bbl currently. The Seaway pipeline 
between Cushing, where WTI is priced, and the US Gulf Coast is due to be 
reversed in early May which should help alleviate the bottleneck at Cushing. 
This should help WTI to reconnect to world oil markets. This week, the 
company operating Seaway announced a tariff proposal for its use. This 
provided much needed clarity around the economics of moving oil out of 
Cushing now via other means versus storing the oil and moving it later once 
the pipeline is available. We expect the spread to continue to narrow and stay 
long Dec-12 WTI vs. Dec-12 Brent with a $5/bbl target. 
FX weekly change vs USD 
1.0% 
0.5% 
0.0% 
-0.5% 
-1.0% 
-1.5% 
USD ,WY EUR GBP CHF CAD AUD 
Sauce: J.P. Wegan 
More details in ... 
FX Markets Weekly. John Normand et af. 
Commodity Markets Outlook & Strategy. Cohn 
Fenton et al. 
OA Markets Monthly. Lawrence Eagles et al. 
Metals Revkaw and Outlook Michael Jansen 
Global Metals Quarterly. Michael Jansen 
Apr 20,2012 
EFTA01175990

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
J.P, Morgan 
Interest rates 
Current 
Jun-12 
Sep-12 
Dec-12 
Mar-13 
YTD Return' 
United States 
Fed funds rate 
0.125 
0.125 
0.125 
0.125 
0.125 
10.year yields 
1.98 
2.40 
2.50 
2.50 
2.50 
0.0% 
Euro area 
Ref rate 
1.00 
1.00 
1.00 
1.00 
1.00 
10-year yields 
1.71 
1.80 
2.00 
2.00 
2.00 
1.2% 
United Kingdom 
Repo tale 
0.50 
0.50 
0.50 
0.50 
0.50 
10-year yields 
2.18 
2.55 
235 
2.40 
2.40 
1.8%
Japan 
Overnight call rate 
0.05 
0.05 
0.05 
0.05 
0.05 
10-year yelds 
0.93 
1.15 
1.05 
1.05 
1.15 
0.6% 
GBI-EM hedged in $ 
Yield • Global Diversified 
6.34 
6.30 
2.3% 
Credit Markets 
Current 
Index 
YTD Return' 
US high grade (bp over UST) 
201 
JPMorgan JULI Porfolo Spread to Treasury 
3.1% 
Euro high grade (bp over Euro got) 
268 
Bon Euro Corporal. Index 
3.5% 
USD high yield (bp vs. UST) 
6.49 
JPMorgan Global High Yield Index STW 
5.5% 
Euro high yield (bp over Euro gov) 
876 
IBoxx Euro HY Index 
10.6% 
EMBIG (bp vs. UST) 
351 
EMBI Global 
5.8% 
EM Corporates (bp vs. UST) 
400 
JPM EM Corporates (GEM) 
6.2% 
Commodities 
Current 
Quarterly Averages 
1202 
1203 
1204 
1301 
GSCI Index 
YTD Return' 
Brent ($bbl) 
119 
112 
120 
125 
125 
Energy 
6.6% 
Gold ill's) 
1643 
1825 
1900 
1925 
1850 
Plecous Meals 
2.7% 
Copper (Dmetrio ton) 
8094 
8500 
8875 
9000 
8750 
Industrial Metals 
5.0% 
Corn iSBul 
Foreign Exchange 
6.02 
Current 
6.70 
6.50 
6.60 
Jun-12 
Sep-12 
Dec-12 
Mar-13 
Agriculture 
1.3% 
3m cash YTD Return' 
index 
in USD 
EUFUUSD 
1.32 
1.34 
1.36 
1.36 
1.36 
EUR 
1.9% 
USDIJPY 
81.6 
86 
84 
83 
82 
JPY 
5.6% 
GEUNUSD 
1.61 
1.61 
1.62 
1.62 
1.62 
GBP 
3.9% 
usask 
186 
1.84 
182 
1.80 
1.80 
BRL 
1.9% 
USDICNY 
6.31 
6.20 
620 
6.10 
6.10 
CNY 
0.5% 
USD1(RW 
1140 
1120 
1100 
1090 
1090 
KRW 
2.1% 
USD/TRY 
1.79 
1.80 
137 
1.75 
1.70 
TRY 
8.2% 
YTD Return 
Equities 
Current 
(local ccy) 
US 
Europe 
Sector Allocation' 
YTD 
YTD 
Japan 
YTD 
EM 
YTD ($) 
S&P 
1386 
12.6% 
Energy 
2.5% 
.1.1% 
10.5% 
11.7% 
Nasdaq 
3024 
18.0% 
Materials 
102% 
8.3% 
15.0% 
10.0% 
Ton< 
812 
15.6% 
Industrials 
103% 
8.6% 
13.9% 
18.0% 
FTSE 100 
5772 
4.0% 
Discretonary 
15.0% 
152% 
26.3% 
14.5% 
MSCI Eurozone' 
134 
64% 
Staples 
5.5% 
4.5% 
13.9% 
12.6% 
hISCI Evispe. 
1061 
5.6% 
Healthcare 
8.7% 
2.7% 
5.3% 
13.6% 
MSCI EM S' 
1023 
13.7% 
Financials 
20.3% 
10.5% 
28.9% 
14.3% 
Brazil Bovespa 
63011 
12.6% 
Information Tech. 
21.0% 
12.4% 
17.5% 
21.7% 
Hang Sang 
21011 
14.4% 
Telecommunications 
2.7% 
4.8% 
.1.3% 
6.4% 
Shanghai SE 
2407 
2.9% 
'Love:stratums as of Apr 19.2012 
Local currency except MSCI EM $ 
UtilAies 
-1 .3% 
.0.2% 
8.5% 
12.3% 
Overal 
12.6% 
5.6% 
15.6% 
133% 
Slow acemberp, D.2135PPY11.13E.S. Str6rd d POYS Seeecet.. JP. Werga, «anale: 
Apr 20,2012 
5 
EFTA01175991

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
J. P Morgan 
Global Economic Outlook Summary 
Real GDP 
%over steal ago 
Real GDP 
%treer trams penal scar 
Consumer prices 
%owa year ago 
2011 
2012 
2013 
4011 
1012 
2012 
3012 
4012 
1013 
2013 
4011 
2012 
4012 
2013 
The Americas 
Unried Stales 
1.7 
2.5 
22 
3.0 
2.5 
2.5 
3.0 
2.0 
1.5 
2.3 
33 
22 
1.9 
1.7 
Canada 
2.5 
2.3 
2.5 
1.8 
ad 
2.6 
2.3 
2.4 
2.7 
2.4 
2.7 
1.7 
1.7 
2.0 
Lath America 
4.3 
3.8 
4.0 
2.4 
3,2 
5.1 
4.3 
4.1 
4.4 
3.8 
72 
6.4 
63 
6.9 
Argentaia 
8.9 
4.5 
4.0 
3.2 
(kg 
5.5 
6.5 
5.0 
3.0 
4.0 
9.6 
10.0 
10.01 
11.0 
2.9 
3J 
4.5 
13 
2,5 
5.7 
5.5 
5.7 
45 
45 
62 
5.1 
Si 
53 
Chile 
6.0 
5.0 
4.5 
8.2 
51 
4.9 
4.6 
4.7 
4.5 
4.4 
4.0 
42 
3.9 
3.4 
Colombia 
5.9 
5.0 
5.0 
5.4 
1,5 
4.9 
4.1 
3.0 
5.7 
6.0 
3.9 
3.6 
33 
3.0 
Ecuador 
7.8 
4.0 
4.0 
4.1 
2.0 
3.5 
4.0 
4.0 
4.0 
4.0 
5.5 
5.3 
4.7 
4.7 
Mexico 
3.9 
32 
35 
1.7 
5.1 
3.9 
2.0 
3.2 
4.9 
2.8 
3S 
42 
4.0 
3.8 
Pew 
6.9 
5.5 
7.0 
2.8 
5.2 
5.8 
6.2 
7.3 
8.0 
8.0 
4.5 
3.9 
3.1! 
3.0 
Venezia 
4.2 
4.0 
1.0 
3.5 
6.0 
6.0 
4.0 
-3.0 
0.0 
0.0 
28S 
23.9 
23.4 
31.7 
Ask:Pacii ic 
Japan 
-0.7 
2.0 
13 
-0.7 
La 
2.0 
1.4 
1.2 
1.0 
1.2 
-03 
0.1 T 
0.1 1
-0.1 
Australia 
2.0 
3.0 
3.3 
1.7 
3.1 
1.9 
3.7 
4.1 
4.5 
2.0 
3.1 
2.5 
3.3 
3.0 
New Zealand 
1A 
2.9 
2.7 
1.4 
5.1 
2.1 
3.7 
3.0 
0.9 
3.4 
12 
12 
25 
2.7 
Asia ex Japan 
7.0 
6.5 
7.1 
4.6 
8.0 
6.7 
72 
7.5 
7.0 
7.0 
4.9 
31 
4A 
4.9 T 
China 
9.2 
82 
9.1 
8.8 
6.8 
7.8 
9.5 
10.0 
9.1 
81 
4.6 
33 
3.6 
4.6 
Hong Kong 
5.0 
2.8 
42 
1.6 
31 
4.0 
5.5 
6.0 
3.0 
3.5 
5.7 
4.5 
3.6 
3.2 
India 
7.0 
7.1 
73 
3.8 
j31 
5.5 
6.3 
6.5 
6.7 
7.5 
8A 
72 
82 
8.5 
Indonesia 
6.5 
5.3 
5.5 
9.9 
5,5 
5.0 
4.5 
5.0 
5.5 
5.5 
4.1 
3.9 
7.4 
7.3 
Korea 
3.6 
33 
4.0 
1.3 
all 
4.0 
4.5 
5.0 
4.0 
4.0 
4.0 
3.0 
3,5 
3.8 
Malaysia 
5.1 
3.9 
32 
4.8 
5_,Q 
2.0 
2.0 
2.5 
4.0 
4.5 
32 
2.6 
22 
1.8 
Philippines 
3.7 
43 
42 
3.5 
La 
4.9 
5.7 
4.9 
4.5 
4.5 
4.7 
3.9 
4.0 
4.0 
Singapore 
4.9 
3.7 
4.0 
-2.5 
j 
6.6 
3.2 
2.0 
4.5 
4.5 
5S 
4.6 
3A 
2.8 
Taiwan 
4.0 
22 
5.1 
-0.6 
3.3 
4.8 
5.8 
6.5 
4.5 
4.6 
1A 
13 
1.7 
1.2 
Thailand 
0.1 
5.1 
3.5 
-36.4 
45.0 
20.0 
2.0 
0.5 
5.0 
6.5 
4.0 
3.71 
3.5 
3.21 
Mks:Middle East 
Israel 
4.8 
2.9 
4.4 
3.2 
La 
3.2 
6.1 
7.4 
4.5 
2.8 
2S 
23 
2.5 
2.1 
South Africa 
3.1 
2.7 
3.6 
3.2 
LI 
2.6 
2.8 
3.2 
3.8 
3.5 
6.1 
6.0 
62 
5.9 
Europe 
Euro area 
1.5 
-OA 
0.4 
-1.2 
15 
-0.8 
-0.5 
0.3 
0.5 
0.5 
2.9 
2A 
221 
1.7 
Germany 
3.1 
0.6 
IA 
-0.7 
(1.1 
1.0 
0.8 
1.3 
1.5 
13 
2.6 
22 
2.1 
1.7 = 
France 
1.7 
03 
0.7 
0.6 
DA 
0.0 
0.3 
0.5 
OS 
1.0 
2.6 
2.6 T 
2.3 T 
1.9 1
Italy 
0.5 
-1.91 
-0.7 
-2.6 
721 1 
-2.5 
-1.5 
-1.0 
-0.5 
-0.5 
3.7 
3.6 T 
4.0 T 
3.6 T 
Norway 
2.7 
1.4 
12 
2.5 
0.0 
0.0 
1.0 
1.0 
2.0 
2.5 
0.9 
0.9 
1.4 
1.7 
Sweden 
4.0 
-0.3 
1.7 
-4.4 
-0.5 
-0.5 
0.5 
1.0 
2.0 
2.3 
23 
1.1 
1.1 
15 
United Kingdom 
0.7 
0.4 
1.9 
-1.2 
0.5 
-1.0 
2.5 
1.5 
2.0 
2.0 
4.6 
3.0 
3D 
2.7 
Emerging Europe 
4.8 
2.8 
3.5 
4.6 
1.2 1 
1.4 
3.0 T 
3.1 ! 
3.5 
3.2 
6A 
5.0 1 
5.5 
6.1 
Bulgaria 
1.7 
1.5 
2.5 
Czech Republic 
1.7 
-0.2 
1.7 
-0.5 
-0.8 
-1.0 
1.1 
2.3 
3.3 
-1.3 
2A 
2.7 
2.9 
2.5 
Hungary 
1.7 
0.5 
15 
1.2 
-0.3 
0.3 
1.0 
1.5 
1.5 
2.0 
4.1 
5.8 
5.9 
32 
Poland 
4.3 
32 
3.0 
4.5 
2,a 
2.0 
2.5 
3.0 
3.0 
3.0 
4.6 
3.9 
3.5 
2.8 
Romania 
2.5 
02 
2.7 
-0.8 
J.2 
-1.5 
0.8 
2.4 
2.5 
3.0 
3A 
33 
4.4 
4.0 
Russia 
4.3 
3.7 
3.7 
6.4 
151
2.0 
4.0 T 
3.5 1 
4.0 
4.0 
62 
3.9 1 
6.1 1 
6.8 
Turkey 
8.5 
2.5 
4,5 
92 
9.0 
62 
8.8 
Global 
2.6 
2.3 
2.6 
1.5 
2.5 1 
2.2 
2.7T 
2.5 
2.5 
2.6 
3.6 
2.8 
22T 
2.71 
Developed market 
1.3 
13 
15 
0.6 
LS 
1.0 
15 
13 
12 
15 
25 
2.0 
1.9 T 
1.6 T 
Emerging markets 
5.8 
5.0 
5.6 
4.0 
Si 1 
5.3 
5.7 T 
5.9 
5.7 
5.5 
5.7 
4.8 
5.1 
5.6 T 
Satre: JP. Morgan 
Apr20,2012 
6 
EFTA01175992

Global Asset Allocation 
The J.F. Morgan View 
J.P.Morgan 
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EFTA01175994