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Giving the railroads the freedom to run their business as they saw fit led to dramatic improvements. The first result was a sharp rise in traffic and productivity and fall in freight costs. Since 1981 productivity has risen by 172%, after years of stagnation. Adjusted for inflation, rates are down by 55% since 1981. Rail's share of the freight market, measured in ton-miles, has risen steadily to 43%—about the highest in any rich country. The $34 billion purchase in 2009 by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF), one of the seven main freight railways (see chart 2), opened many Americans' eyes to the industry's significance. That America's shrewdest investor should place his biggest bet on BNSF focused attention on how the country's railways have been quietly boosting the economy by sucking costs out of many supply chains. Coal is the biggest single cargo, accounting for 45% by volume and 23% by value. More than 70% of coal transport is by rail. As demand grows for the lower-sulphur coal from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming, it has to travel farther. In response railroads have invested in more powerful locomotives to haul longer coal trains: since 1990 the average horsepower of their fleet has risen by 72%. Yet energy efficiency has also improved. Lighter, aluminium freight wagons, double-decker ones and more fuel-efficient locomotives have lifted the number of ton-miles per (American) gallon of fuel from 332 to 457—an improvement of 38%. But the fastest-growing part of rail freight has been "intermodal" traffic: containers or truck trailers loaded on to flat railcars. The number of such shipments rose from 3m in 1980 to 12.3m in 2006, before the downturn caused a slight falling back. Behind this lies the tide of imports coming into the West Coast ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles. A special rail expressway for freight, the Alameda Corridor, was opened in 2002 to link the ports to the big national rail routes, bypassing the 200 level crossings (grade crossings, in America) on the original branch lines that used to cause huge traffic jams on the roads as mile-long freight trains rumbled across. The corridor, one of the biggest infrastructure projects in modem America, was completed on time and on budget for $2.4 billion by a public-private partnership considered by many to be a model for other rail schemes, such as California's proposed high-speed passenger line. Despite lots of investment—amounting to $460 billion since 1980, and equivalent to 40% of revenues in recent years—capacity constraints and rising fuel costs pushed up freight rates from 2003 until the onset of recession, since when they have levelled off This has caused unhappiness among some coal companies which have no alternative means of transport. Although most American rail corridors involve two railroads covering the same origin and destination points, in reality competition is limited. Usually one route is more direct than the other, and if a mining company has sidings and a branch line linked to one railroad it cannot quickly and easily switch to another. Even so, American rail freight is among the cheapest in the world, costing less than half as much as in Japan or Europe. After adjusting for differences in purchasing power it is cheaper even than in China. But the past ten years have seen another source of growth, as interstate highways have become clogged in places and have shown the effects of a lack of investment. Since one freight train can carry as much as 280 lorries can, railways can help to limit the rise in road congestion. Trucking companies such as J.B. Hunt have come to see the advantage of putting trailers on flat wagons for long-haul and using roads only for local pickup and delivery. This move was also spurred, according to Mr Phillips, by a shortage of lorry drivers. He says that tougher drink- driving rules and social changes have shrunk the numbers of "good ole boy" truckers inured to a life on the road. Most hauliers now suffer labour turnover of 100% a year. EFTA01139699
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Freight railways' very success is starting to create difficulties for them. The Department of Transportation estimates that many are already exceeding their theoretical capacity and are congested. It estimates that lots more investment will be needed, because capacity will have to rise by nearly 90% to meet forecast demand by 2035. The investment bill could rise yet more because of a change in the pattern of trade: in 2014 the Panama Canal opens a second lane, doubling its capacity and allowing it to carry bigger container vessels and bulk ships. Coming through to Gulf of Mexico and East Coast ports, these vessels will increase the need for better rail links inland. In addition the freight railroads face a $15 billion bill for a new safety system to control trains on lines that also carry passengers or dangerous chemical cargoes. This system, Positive Train Control (PTC), is intended to stop or slow a train automatically if a driver goes too fast or passes a red signal. The bill to introduce PTC was signed by George Bush in 2008 only a month after a crash between a Metrolink commuter train and a Union Pacific freight train in California, causing 25 deaths and 135 injuries. The railway companies complain that only 3% of crashes are caused by the sort of human error that PTC is designed to avert and that claims that the system will improve efficiency on the network are unfounded. Whereas the FRA says that the new safety system will apply to only 65,000 miles (out of a total of over 140,000), the industry reckons it will cover more than half the network. The railways are seeking tax breaks and other subsidies to reduce the cost of complying. But as a nation we have to see past the monetary success of one segment of transportation, when passenger travel is as important as freight and when technology advances in high speed rail could lead to advances in other segments, in addition to making the country more competitive. For a period n the 1990s I lived in Paris and commuted to London weekly via Eurostar, because it was much easier, cheaper and more efficient than traveling via planes. And having commuted between New York, Washington DC and Boston on a regular basis in the 1970s, for me the advantage of a high speed rail corridor is a new brainer. To not invest in high speed rail is akin to not supporting the expansion of the transcontinental rail road in the United States or the highway system. Finally, if only for one reason, JOBS, we as a country should embrace and support high speed rail across America. Again, we have to start thinking about what is good for the country, instead of pursuing self-interest at the cost of innovation. Last week Steven Rattner, a long-time Wall Street financier who led the restructuring of the auto industry in 2009 as counselor to the Treasury secretary under the Obama administration wrote in an op-ed in the New York Times - America in 2013, as Told in Charts - Looking back on 2013, many of the economic and political themes seemed familiar: a weak economy. Growing income inequality. Gridlock in Washington. Partisan wrangling over fiscal policy. But others, like the disastrous rollout of the Affordable Care Act HealthCare.gov website and the government shutdown, were new or at least revivals. To illustrate what happened Rattner presented io charts covering the first year of President Obama's second term: 1. Economic trends of recent years continue in 2013 — particularly the diverging fortunes of the rich and everyone else — but in some ways they accelerated. The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor's index, was up a stunning 32 percent (through Dec. 27). Corporate profits rose to a record $2.1 trillion. Meanwhile, incomes remained nearly flat and jobs tallies grew slowly. Through Oct. 3o, earnings were up just 1.4 percent, an even smaller increase than in 2012. The only relative bright spot for the average American was housing; thanks in part to the aggressive efforts by the Federal Reserve to hold down interest rates, sale prices of homes were up by 13.3 percent in September, compared with a year earlier. EFTA01139700
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2. Economic growth — a likely increase in gross domestic product of just 1.8 percent in 2013, after adjusting for inflation — was also unbalanced in other ways, particularly the impact of the government. The nation's quickly falling deficit (it dropped from $1.09 trillion to $680 billion in a single year) cost dearly in economic activity. Spending by cash-strapped consumers and investment by skittish businesses both grew at slightly below customary rates. A flat-lining Europe dented President Obama's pledge to double American exports by 2015. On the other hand, home building and related residential activity, depressed since the onset of the financial crisis, provided a second annual lift to the economy. 3. Employment remained an overarching problem. While job growth has picked up steam in the last few months, the fall's higher pace of job creation — around 200,000 per month — would still not be nearly enough to bring unemployment down to pre-recession levels. According to calculations by the Brookings Institution's Hamilton Project, even if the 200,000 jobs per month rate were maintained, the unemployment rate would not fall to the November 2007 level of 4.7 percent for another five years. 4. Not only has the job recovery been sluggish, but also a disproportionate number of those that have been created have been in lower wage occupations, such as retail clerks and fast-food workers. And that trend is projected (by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) to continue; using a simple average, the 10 job categories expected to add the most jobs during the current decade boasted a collective median wage of $32,386 in 2010, roughly $15 per hour and far below the United States median of $51,892 at the time. Seven of the 10 categories pay below this average. Note the conspicuous absence of manufacturing; it may be recovering, but it isn't what is driving new jobs. 5. Wage increases haven't been paltry because the efficiency of the American worker has flagged; indeed, productivity has continued to chug along. But those productivity gains have simply not been passed on to workers. Between 2000 and 2012, productivity rose by 22 percent while wages increased by 7.7 percent. The divergence was particularly great over the last three years of that period — productivity up 4.6 percent and real wages down 1.1 percent. For this failure of the American worker to be rewarded for his growing output, blame a variety of factors, perhaps most important, globalization, which has allowed companies to move production to whatever part of the planet offers the lowest cost labor. In that respect, American workers remain in a race to the bottom. 6. The troubles with the Affordable Care Act's HealthCare.gov rollout sure grabbed daily headlines this fall. But throughout the commotion, little mention was made of the most fundamental aspect of the law: the way in which it raises nearly $2 trillion over the next decade — mostly from wealthy individuals and health care providers — and uses the money to fund the largest expansion in insurance coverage since Medicare was created nearly 5o years ago. As shown above, the end result should be better health care options for those closer to the bottom end of the income scale, through the Medicaid expansion and creation of exchanges with subsidies for most participants. The intended result: 25 million fewer uninsured Americans. Yes, this is redistribution on a grand scale, and we should all be very proud of it. But as evidenced by Obamacare's consistently poor poll numbers, most Americans are not feeling charitable toward the less well off. 7. Trust in many American institutions has been declining, but few institutions have fallen so far out of grace as Congress. Last year, I showed that the previous Congress was the least productive Congress in modern times, including the famous Do-Nothing Congress of 1947-48, passing just 238 laws, 37 percent of the average of the 32 Congresses that preceded it. In 2013, the first year of this Congress, the number of new laws passed fell further, to 55 (as of Nov. 30), seven fewer than during the same period in 2011. As a result, Congress now stands dead last in approval rating among key American institutions — far below other braches of government, below news outlets, below banks and even below big business. 8. Congress well deserves that poll standing, in significant part because of the damage that it has done to the federal budget. The combination of Republican determination to cut spending and Democratic insistence that none of the entitlement programs (such as Medicare and Social Security) be meaningfully affected has resulted in the utterly inane policy of starving key domestic programs, including education, infrastructure and research and development. The recent budget fight and subsequent agreement did nothing to change that trajectory. As shown by the red line above, all that EFTA01139701
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resulted was avoiding the worst two years of forced budget cuts to these programs; for the 1O years beginning in 2008, this important spending will rise slightly in nominal numbers but will fall by 5 percent, after adjusting for inflation. 9. The dysfunction in Washington has taken its toll in other important ways. Not only has business confidence been shaken, but each new political battle has also been terrifying for consumers. Back in the summer of 2011, when the United States had its AAA credit rating removed by . after it flirted with default, consumer confidence recorded the second biggest two-month drop ever, behind only the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. A smaller decline occurred at the end of 2012 when Congress nearly went over a fiscal cliff. Beginning this past July, consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years as a result of the government shutdown, the A.C.A. problems and related battles. Now, a two-year budget nearly in hand, Americans' moods seem to have improved. At a time when we need consumers to spend (prudently), these periods of faltering confidence have real economic consequences. 1O. In contrast to the mood in most of the country and the still slow economy, Silicon Valley is partying again, albeit not quite like 1999. The Facebook initial public offering in May 2012 helped usher in a resurgence of excitement among investors for anything that looks like a sexy new high-tech service. This year's poster child . was Twitter, which set a new record of one kind among recent major technology .'s: its valuation of more than 28 times its revenues. That didn't daunt investors; the stock promptly more than doubled and now trades at 65 times revenues. (Of course, there are no profits.) To see all of the charts please see the attached article. Economic Winners and Losers Profits +44.7% +40 — Change since the end of 2007. i/ Stocks +43.2% +30 — +20 — +10% — UP DOWN - 10% — -20 — -30 — -40 — 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Incomes +3.9% Housing -10.4% Latest available data. Stocks are the S&P 500 plus their dividends. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bloomberg; Sentier Research; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Case-Shiller What is depressing is to think Obama will be blamed for everything that "went wrong", with no mention of the way he was sabotaged by Republicans and their ilk at every turn, plus a label of "a depressing first year of Obama's second term". More depressing it is to see how so many Americans love to batter a decent man for their own political gain and to keep the status quo so their greediness can be satisfied. This is no way to act in a democratic society. Friends in other countries weep for you. June Beeby - Kingston, Ontario Canada EFTA01139702
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While should not come as a surprise to anyone with the ability to reason, these charts starkly confirm what we already know: that the greatest wealth redistribution in American history has occurred over the past thirty years. Corporations, the wealthy, and their political allies have managed to tag any governmental action that doesn't enrich them as socialism, while filling their own pockets to the point where even the 19th century's "robber barons" would be embarrassed. The ironic element to this is that it is the common folk who have-- in a political sense-- made this possible by voting against their own interests time and again. When working people resent unions, people with defined benefit pensions, money spent on public education and infrastructure investment, immigrants, and affordable health care for all of their fellow citizens then you know that we have truly entered the era of Bizarro America where down is up, truth is falsehood, and war is peace. But thank the lord that taxes can't be raised on those most able to afford them and who have benefited the most from the wealth redistribution policies of our times. It's apparently better to pass the burden down to our undereducated, underemployed children rather than demand that the policies that have resulted in the economic imbalances demonstrated by these charts are brought to an end-- now. Not in five years, not in ten years, not in fifty years, but now. DGP - Oneonta, NY Would like to see some graphs that reflect the Republican Party's contribution to the poor economic performance. What has been the impact of not continuing unemployment insurance? What has been the impact of not raising the minimum wage? What has been the impact of contributing to the failure of the ACA without making any effort to provide almost universal coverage to the population? Why not legislation that provides an avenue for immigrants to become citizens? On and on!! George Gluck — New Jersey Mr. Rattner appears to confuse quantity with quality when attributing the public's displeasure with Congress to the smaller number of laws passed. I would suggest that passing more inane statutes that are so enormous that they are unable to be read and understood by the Congress (much less the general public) is a lot less important than perhaps streamlining the regulations that are already in force, and deleting the unending loopholes that are custom written and inserted into all of the voluminous laws being passed. I would rather see fewer more concise laws passed. BL — Potomac, Md Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Some momentum on the minimum wage could develop into a real impact on income inequality. The Affordable Care Act would have had many, many glitches no matter what; it will take some time to sort them out but we should all end up ahead. The Tea Party is in a defensive crouch and even Congress shows signs of realizing they are going to have to do better. We are talking to Iran and shaking hands with Cuba, and very slowly extricating ourselves from various western Asia and Middle East civil confrontations, forcing them to sort things out themselves, as they must eventually. I'm not an optimist but where there is change there is opportunity. Robert York - New York (Sty EFTA01139703
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****** If there is a list that you would try to keep your company off, it is Douglas A. McIntyre's list of - The to Most Hated Companies in America - published last week by 24/7 Wall Street that was later picked up (re-published) by other media outlets and platforms across the country and around the world. Contained are the obvious suspects as they are often the subject of ridicule by late night comics and the blogosphere, so how did K-Mart not make this list? And why is Blackberry on it, especially when I was a loyal "crackberry" user for more than 15 years until I transitioned to the Samsung S4 last fall.... I still miss the keyboard, but then any smartphone maker who didn't realize that a companion tablet would become as important as the phone itself, maybe shouldn't be in the business As for lululemon, I thought that it was a trendy competitor to Jamba Juice, since yoga isn't my thing. By the way who still shops at JC Penny? And if WalMart is so hated how come it is the largest retailer on the planet without real competitors? I grew up looking at the Sears & Roebuck catalog like every day was the night before Christmas, how did Sears miss the boat that Amazon caught? With this said, if you have the time please enjoy the list below and for more information please feel free to review the entire article by McIntyre to see which companies that you would have added to the list. These are the 10 most-hated companies in America. 1. McDonald's McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) was at the center of the most significant labor movement of 2013. The company has, between its owned and operated stores and franchises, hundreds of thousands of employees who earn barely more than the minimum wage. A recent study conducted by the National Employment Law Project (NELP) found that McDonald's employees rely more on public assistance programs than any other large fast-food company, with an estimated $1.2 billion in costs to the public. Making matters worse, McDonald's advised some of its employees to sell their possessions to make-up for holiday spending debt. Recently, the fast food chain's hotline designated to help its workers live on their modest incomes encouraged employees to apply for food stamps. Low wages may be why the fast- food giant scored just 93 in the American Customer Satisfaction Index, the lowest in the limited service restaurant. 2. Abercrombie & Fitch Long-time Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) CEO Michael Jeffries is often referred to as the "modern founder" of the decades-old clothing line. But he became the subject of controversy when comments he made in 2006 about who the company wishes to see as its core customers recently surfaced. The comments implied that the teen retailer is looking to attract what he refers to as the "cool EFTA01139704
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kids" and aims to avoid overweight customers. Still, he has the backing of the board. In response to an attempt by activist shareholder group Engaged Capital to force him out, the board gave Jefferies a new contract. Between the loud music and shoddy goods, if you have been in a A & F store lately you have to wonder how it is still in business. But then maybe I am not a "cool kid." 3. Electronic Arts Leading game maker EA (NASDAQ: EA) has recently hit some serious roadblocks. The company's highly anticipated SimCity reboot was by all accounts a public relations disaster. The game servers failed to function for nearly a week after the launch, which meant consumers couldn't play the game for a week after they purchased it. The company eventually offered a free game to anyone who had purchased SimCity in the early days. One of the free games offered was Mass Effect 3, another release that tarnished the company's brand. Critics and garners widely criticized the ending of the third installment of this very successful game as unsatisfying. The backlash was so severe that the company eventually released a free alternate ending. And there may be more troubles ahead. EA is having problems with yet another bug-filled launch, the fourth installment of the Battlefield franchise. On top of this, investors are suing the company for allegedly making misleading statements about the game's launch and overstating its success. It's perhaps not surprising then that, once again, The Consumerist labeled EA the "Worst Company in America" last year — the first company ever to earn the dubious distinction two years in a row. 4. Sears Holdings Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) is the parent corporation of retailers Sears and Kmart — both notorious underperformers. Investors have lost trust in controlling shareholder and chairman Eddie Lampert, whose poor management and decision-making has caused the company to shrink. Only 17% of the company's workers approved of Lampert's performance, according to Glassdoor. Sears was also ranked among the worst companies to work for last year, according to an analysis of Glassdoor data by 24/7 Wall St. Employees rated it a 2.5 out of 5, among the lowest marks awarded to a company of that size. This may be why the ACSI gave Sears a lower customer service score than every retailer in the industry, except for Walmart. As is the case at many of the country's largest retailers, Sears and Kmart are among the largest employers of low-wage workers in the country, according to analysis by 24/7 Wall St. in collaboration with NELP. 5. DISH Network Subscribers aren't impressed with DISH's (NASDAQ: DISH) customer service. DISH earned a spot in MSN's 2013 Customer Service Hall of Shame largely because of its aggressive sales tactics. Customers also complained about confusing contracts and unreasonable cancellation fees. DISH is not the only company in the industry that customers despise, however, it reaps additional notoriety because of its relationship with its employees. Based on a 24/7 Wall St. analysis of Glassdoor data, DISH was rated as the worst company to work for last year. 6. Wal-mart Like McDonald's, Walmart (NYSE: WMT) bore the brunt of the labor protests around raising the minimum wage last year. The company employs more workers who make less than $10 per hour than any company in America, according to an analysis by 24/7 Wall St in collaboration with NELP. While the company reports that its U.S. workers make an average of $12.81 an hour, this does not include part-time hourly wages. According to Glassdoor, Walmart sales associates, who are often part-time EFTA01139705
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hourly employees, earn less than $9.00 an hour, on average. Further, only half of the store's employees approve of the CEO. Customers were less satisfied with service at Walmart in 2012 than at any competing chain. Possibly as part of an effort to stem employee dissatisfaction and deflect negative media attention, the world's largest retailer promoted 35,00o part-time workers to full-time status. 7. JPMorgan Chase JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) has been embroiled in several major scandals in recent years. In 2012, the company captured headlines with the so-called "London Whale" fiasco, in which a series of trades cost it billions of dollars. As a result, the company's management and its risk controls were criticized. Yet, as 2013 wore on, the scandals continued piling up. In October, the company agreed to pay a $13 billion settlement related to its actions — and those of acquisitions Bear Steams and Washington Mutual — in off-loading poor quality mortgage-backed securities onto investors. JPMorgan also became the focus of a scandal in China and Hong Kong, where it reportedly hired the children of Chinese elites to help facilitate the bank's business in China. The new year has also started off poorly for the bank, which was fined for ignoring signs that Bernie Madoff was running a ponzi scheme. The mounting negative press has led many to call for CEO Jamie Dimon's residentation. 8. lululemon lululemon was once one of the world's most-promising retail companies. However, it has fallen on hard times. Shares are down nearly 20% in the past 12 months, compared with the S&P 500's 25% increase. lululemon was once the only game in town for yoga wear, clothing that has become extremely popular in the last few years. But larger clothing brands have begun eating away at the company's market share. Shares are down more than 15% since the company cut its outlook for the fourth quarter and fiscal year in mid-December. The company was embroiled in several public relations fiascos last year. After customers began complaining that one style of the company's pants were see-through in certain conditions, lululemon issued a recall. The problems might have ended there had the company's Chairman Chip Wilson not mentioned on television that the pants might not work on women of all sizes. In the ensuing fallout, Wilson resigned. 9. BlackBerry The long and tragic decline of BlackBerry is a good example of how quickly a market leader can go astray. The grandfather of the smartphone industry has lost almost all of its market share to current leaders Apple and Samsung. As recently as 2008 the company was one of the largest sellers of smartphones in the world, with total unit sales more than double those of Apple. Since then, however, the company's share of the mobile phone market has evaporated. BlackBerry shares dropped by nearly 30% over the past year, while the S&P 500 gained more than 25%. Revenue in the third quarter was approximately $1.2 billion, down 56% from the year before. The company recorded revenue from 1.9 million smartphones in the period, compared to 6.9 million in the same quarter of the previous year, and the company lost $4.4 billion in the quarter. In contrast, Apple sold 33.8 million iPhones in its last reported quarter. BlackBerry launched two new phones last year in a last-ditch effort to field a competitive product. Unfortunately, consumers ignored the Zio and Qio, prompting the company to announce it was cutting one-third of its staff and taking an inventory write-down of roughly $960 million in its fiscal second quarter. 10. JCPenney EFTA01139706
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JCPenney has probably made more operational and strategic mistakes than any other large publicly traded company in America. Penney hired Apple's retail chief Ron Johnson in November 2011 to replace longtime CEO Mike Ullman. Johnson implemented a series of marketing and merchandising strategies that not only failed to boost revenue but actually hurt sales — same-store sales and revenue fell roughly 25% in fiscal 2012. Same store sales failed to meet modest expectations in 2013. The company then rehired Ullman as CEO in April 2013, despite his poor performance before Johnson joined. Since returning, Ullman has announced plans to reverse most of Johnson's changes. Because of its sales failures and poor balance sheet, Penney is considered by many to be teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. The stock market has ravaged the stock, pushing down shares by 60% over the last five years. JC Penney has also done poorly in the critical e-commerce sector. In the Foresee study of online retail customer satisfaction, Penney only saving grace is that it can claim that you might have a better shopping experience than at K-Mart. ****** Wages Fall Even Further Behind Percentage change since 1948. 200% — Net productivity 150 — 100 — Hourly compensation 50 — '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 Sources: Economic Policy Insitute; Bureau of Labor Statistics +241% +108% Conservatives in American like to say that the War on Poverty which was enacted under President Lyndon Johnson fifty years ago failed. That instead of providing a hand-up, the social safety net programs are simply hand-outs pushing the poor into the economic mainstream beyond their contribution and participation. Not only is this misleading it is false. First, the largest expansion of poor support outside of health care has been the Earned Income Tax Credit, a wage subsidy that has been shown to not only reduce poverty significantly (by 10 million in 2012), but is also a strong work incentive. Moreover, research that follows poor children into adulthood finds that benefits like the EITC and even nutritional support have lasting impacts that improve key outcomes--health, high- school completion, employment and earnings--later in life. To view these programs as "handouts" misses the fact that they act more like investments in the lives of many of their recipients. This week in The Huffington Post, Jared Bernstein wrote the article - The Conservative Response to the War on Poverty Discussion -- So Far — He starts out his article; I'm finding some of the responses by conservative politicians, economists, et al to the War on Poverty discussion to EFTA01139707
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be interesting and revealing. There's a lot of silliness, and worse, of course. I'd assign the Reagan quip
("we fought a war on poverty and lost") to that category, as well as the misleading $2o trillion talking
point (see this Mike Konczal piece out today on this). But once they get past the canned stuff, there's
some interesting substance. Progressives have largely been pointing out that, in fact, rigorous analysis
shows both significant and even lasting progress against poverty, amidst steep remaining challenges.
The anti-poverty effectiveness of the programs developed and expanded before and since the War on
Poverty is easily seen in figures like the one I reprint below, showing the increased divergence
between pre-transfer and post-transfer poverty rates (the figure also shows the increasingly irrelevant
official rate, which leaves out a lot of what we've done to reduce poverty). Yet the fact remains that 16
percent remain poor.
We have to wonder why Conservatives believe that reducing taxes is the solution for everything. They
keep trotting out the notion of means testing as a way to address social security and other programs,
which will lead to them being undercut as less and less people are covered. Then you hear Sen. Marco
Rubio talking about how we need more worker training while he is supporting Rep Paul Ryan's House
budget, which achieves 6o percent of its steep spending cuts from low-income programs, including
training budgets. What else is on the R's anti-poverty agenda?:
--Tax reform: There seem to be two broad ideas here, one of which has a lot of merit. The first is the
old supply-side canard about how lower marginal tax rates will boost growth and jobs, etc. This is not
a serious proposal.
Poverty rate
Predicted rate without
30%
government programs
25
20
15
10
5
0
'64
'74
'84
'94
'04
'12
But after presenting a bit of the ole' supply-side catechism in this piece from a few days ago, former
GW Bush administration economist Glenn Hubbard acknowledged that supply-side elixir "...is
insufficient for increasing the inclusion of low-wage workers, whose incomes may not benefit fully
from economic growth."
Hubbard goes on to endorse a smart idea that I've heard from numerous others in his camp: expand
the Earned Income Credit to adult workers without kids. While the annual credit for working families
with kids averages between $2-3,000, the one for childless adults averages less than $3oo.
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Now, Hubbard et al want to trade this expansion for the elimination of the minimum wage, so the idea...um...needs a bit of work. But the EITC part is a good reform that would incentivize work and lower poverty. --Block grants: Just wrap up all the damn poverty programs into one big package and dump 'em all on the states. OK, maybe that's not quite how they'd put it, but this is a pretty sure-fire recipe to surgically extract the critical countercyclical function of the safety net. I explain here, with disapproving reference to Sen. Rubio's float of this idea last week. --Other stuff: Here's a review of how what some conservatives are thinking about in this space, including standard issue stuff--deregulate (e.g., less professional licensing), sub-minimum wage, more marriage--and some less standard ideas, including helping those with criminal backgrounds get back into the workforce. Many conservatives also support access to pre-school for disadvantaged kids. So, nothing exceptionally path-breaking here, but it's a good conversation, and I'm struck by some conservatives' interest in raising the EITC for adult workers without kids. That would be a real advance. And yes, it's all rhetoric in a climate where little can move forward and budgets--on both sides--often fail to match rhetoric. In fact, a good question for a later post is what the Democrats' agenda for poverty reduction. There is a lot of interest from the admin and the Democrats on extended UI, a higher minimum wage, and, in terms of boosting mobility, the president's universal pre-school program. All good ideas -- a good start; but as Jared Bernstein points out 'full employment" not on the list. Nor is the other costs of poverty that can't be measured in numbers. ****** EFTA01139709
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This week the PEW Research Center published an article by Drew Desilver - Who's poor in America? so years into the `War on Poverty,' a data portrait - which was a the set of social programs enacted in 1964-1965 came to be called, was arguably the most ambitious domestic policy initiative since the Great Depression. But for decades, politicians and social scientists have argued about whether Johnson's antipoverty programs have lifted people out of destitution, trapped them in cycles of dependency, or both enacted under President Lyndon Johnson after he used his first State of the Union address to urge "all-out war on human poverty and unemployment in these United States." Critics note that the official poverty rate, as calculated by the Census Bureau, has fallen only modestly, from 19% in 1964 to 15% in 2012 (the most recent year available). But other analysts, citing shortcomings in the official poverty measure, focus on a supplemental measure (also produced by the Census Bureau) to argue that more progress has been made. A team of researchers from Columbia University, for example, calculated an "anchored" supplemental measure — essentially the 2012 measure carried back through time and adjusted for historical inflation — and found that it fell from about 26% in 1967 to 16% in 2012. What's inarguable, though, is that the demographics of America's poor have shifted over the decades. Here's a look at what has, and hasn't, changed, based on the official measure. Today, most poor Americans are in their prime working years: In 2012, 57% of poor Americans were ages 18 to 64, versus 41.7% in 1959. Poverty Rates for Children and Elderly The Geography of America's Poor 4O3'0 36.2% 35 o `..(NA) 30 27.34. 25 20 15 10 21.8% Be low 18 years old Percent by region of total US. below poverty line 1.4.6% 23.894 22.5 19.0 17.0 161 ■ "It NORTHEAST MIDWEST 5 0 '59 '70 '80 '90 '00 '12 SOUTH , - 46.9 411 Source: Census Bureau PEW RESEARCH CENTER Source: Census Bureau PEW RESEARCH CENTER Far fewer elderly are poor: In 1966, 28.5% of Americans ages 65 and over were poor; by 2012 just 9.1% were. There were 1.2 million fewer elderly poor in 2012 than in 1966, despite the doubling of the total elderly population. Researchers generally credit this steep drop to Social Security, particularly the expansion and inflation-indexing of benefits during the 197os. EFTA01139710
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But childhood poverty persists: Poverty among children younger than 18 began dropping even before the War on Poverty. From 27.3% in 1959, childhood poverty fell to 23% in 1964 and to 14% by 1969. Since then, however, the childhood poverty rate has risen, fallen and, since the 2007-08 financial crisis, risen again. Today's poor families are structured differently: In 1973, the first year for which data are available, more than half (51.4%) of poor families were headed by a married couple; 45.4% were headed by women. In 2012, just over half (50.3%) of poor families were female-headed, while 38.9% were headed by married couples. Poverty regions Poverty is more evenly distributed, though still heaviest in the South: In 1969, 45.9% of poor Americans lived in the South, a region that accounted for 31% of the U.S. population at the time. At 17.9%, the South's poverty rate was far above other regions. In 2012, the South was home to 37.3% of all Americans and 41.1% of the nation's poor people; though the South's poverty rate, 16.5%, was the highest among the four Census-designated regions, it was only 3.2 percentage points above the lowest (the Midwest). Poverty among blacks has fallen sharply: In 1966, two years after Johnson's speech, four-in-ten (41.8%) of African-Americans were poor; blacks constituted nearly a third (31.1%) of all poor Americans. By 2012, poverty among African-Americans had fallen to 27.2% — still more than double the rate among whites (12.7%, 1.4 percentage points higher than in 1966). But poverty has risen among Hispanics. Poverty data for Hispanics, who can be of any race, wasn't collected until 1972. That year, 22.8% lived below the poverty threshold. In 2012, the share of Hispanics in poverty had risen to 25.6%. But the U.S. Hispanic population has quintupled over that time. As a result, more than half of the 22 million-person increase in official poverty between 1972 and 2012 was among Hispanics. Fighting poverty is a complex equation and building social programs is part of that. It seems impossible to track exactly how much of the decrease in poverty has to do with the growth of the economy over the last 50 years and how much social programs have helped people get out of poverty as opposed to alleviating their poverty. Ultimately, one has to believe that education and access to opportunity is the cure-all, both growing the economy and creating opportunity. So then why are be cutting funding to education? Obviously Johnson's War on Poverty hasn't cured poverty but to suggest that it hasn't helped generations of Americans to prosper more than what they would have without these programs is a lie. And imagine what could have been if these programs had not been systematic gutted during the past three decades by supply-side economics agendas. In 2012, connecticutie posted her version of the GOP Rape Advisory Chart to help sort out all of the confusion about the wide variety of rape "flavors" that today's Republican Party seems so hell-bent on bringing to light. Many thought she did a fantastic job, but, given the latest entries into the "rainbow of rape flavors" yesterday and today by Richard Mourdock and John Comyn, I decided to create a revised version that plays it straight--I'm just including the actual quotes themselves. Feel free to repost on FB, TW or wherever you wish. It is now January 2014 and many of these attitudes really haven't changed, so without further ado, I present the updated Republican Party Rape Advisory Chart: EFTA01139711
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THIS WEEK's QUOTE In response to the government officials around New Jersey Governor Chris Christie who felt no reluctance or shame to create a four-day traffic jam that hurt tens of thousands of innocent drivers so that they could teach a public official from another political party a harsh lesson. In a serious day of high alert it didn't matter to them but they must be held accountable because no matter who's guilty or not we can't live in a nation where people are just collateral damage for political retribution. Rev. Al Sharpton BEST VIDEO OF THE WEEK Bruce Springsteen & Jimmy Fallon: "Gov. Christie Traffic Jam" Update 'Born To Run' To Parody Chris Christie's Bridgegate EFTA01139712
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Chris Christie, a noted fan of The Boss (when he isn't sleeping through his concerts), probably won't love this. Last night on "Late Night," Jimmy Fallon and his guest Bruce Springsteen donned '8os-era Springsteen attire to parody the seminal New Jersey anthem, "Born to Run." Except this time, the lyrics were devoted to the "bridge-gate" scandal surrounding Christie's apparently political closing of the George Washington Bridge, causing major traffic issues. This scandal has presented many unlikely things, but we didn't think Bruce growling "I really gotta take a leak!" over "Born to Run" would be one of them. (Read the lyrics below the video.) Web Link: Jimmy: In the day we sweat it out on the streets stuck in traffic on the GWB They shut down the tollbooths of glory because we didn't endorse Christie Sprung from cages on Highway 9 We got three lanes closed, So Jersey get your ass in line Ooohhh, baby this Bridgegate was just pay back It's a bitch slap to the state Democrats We gotta get out but we can't, We're stuck in Governor Chris Christie's Fort Lee New Jersey traffic jam. (The real Springsteen walks out] Bruce: Governor, let me in, I wanna be your friend They'll be no partisan divisions Let me wrap my legs 'round your mighty rims And relieve your stressful conditions We've got Wall Street masters stuck cheek to cheek With blue-collar truckers, and man I really gotta take a leak But I can't I'm stuck in Governor Chris Christie's Fort Lee New Jersey traffic jam [Guitar solo] 1, 2, 3, 4! Jimmy: Highways jammed with pissed off drivers with no place left to go And the press conference went on and on Bruce: It was longer than one of my own damn shows Jimmy: Some day Governor, I don't know when This will all end, but 'til then EFTA01139713
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Together: You're killin' the workin' man. Who's stuck in Governor Chris Christie's Fort Lee New Jersey traffic jam. Whoa whoa whoa! Whoa whoa whoa! Bruce: I gotta take a leak! I really gotta take a leak! Together: Down in Jersey land! GREAT VIDEO MONTAGE Web Link: THIS WEEK's MUSIC EFTA01139714
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As someone who first saw Bruce Springsteen play at Upstairs at Max's Kansas City and again when my friend Jae Mason opened for him on his first tour in Los Angeles but more importantly paying homage to "bridge-gate" this week I am feeling the music of one New Jersey's favorite sons Bruce Frederick Joseph Springsteen (born September 23, 1949) -- an American musician, singer- songwriter and icon. He is best known for his work with the E Street Band. Nicknamed 'The Boss", Springsteen is widely known for his brand of poetic lyrics, Americana working class, sometimes political sentiments centered on his native New Jersey and his lengthy and energetic stage performances, with concerts from the 197os to the present decade running up to an uninterrupted 250 minutes in length. Springsteen's recordings have included both commercially accessible rock albums and more sombre folk-oriented works. His most successful studio albums, Born in the U.S.A. and Born to Run, showcase a talent for finding grandeur in the struggles of daily American life; he has sold more than 64 million albums in the United States making him the fifteenth highest selling artist of all-time and more than 120 million albums worldwide. Springsteen has earned numerous awards for his work, including 20 Grammy Awards, two Golden Globes and an Academy Award as well as being inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and the Songwriters Hall of Fame in 1999. Please enjoy The Boss' music and please don't get angry with me if I haven't included one of your favorites.... EFTA01139715
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Bruce Springsteen — Growing up (Max's Kansas City, NY 1972) -- httwayoutu.be/M7RTievro Bruce Springsteen — Spirit in the Night -- humayoutu.be/xyil-wbom4 Bruce Springsteen - Thunder Road -- http://youtu.be/eJ HiY7LDGo Bruce Springsteen - Rosalita httmayoutu.be/CwoOmgeWHo Bruce Splingsteen - Born To Run -- Impillyoutu.be1O2AvAvKlupu Bruce Splingsteen — The Promised Land -- httpsayaltu.behic610(P76slY Bruce Springsteen - Racing In The Street -- http://youtu.be/bxKka.Q.11Q Bruce Springsteen - Candy's Room - httpsavoutu.be/Pku NPaWlY8 Bruce Springsteen — She's The One — http±putule/Koogyzifunm Bruce Springsteen - WHO DO YOU LOVE/ SHES THE ONE - yYM1Ws Bruce Splingsteen - AU That Heaven Will Allow - http:IlyoututeawBoYin2Ww Bruce Springsteen - Dancing in the dark - httpilivoutu.belstkoumthxqY Bruce Springsteen - Born In The U.S.A. — httpillyoutube/IM4ezDbbu4 Bruce Springsteen - Glory Days - haplayoutue 6,,gm 9) Riym EFTA01139716
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Bruce Springsteen - Jungleland - littpithoutu.bettGunnucon Paul McCartney & Bruce Springsteen — I Saw Her Standing There — httpsavoutu.beilummitmQr48g Saying Goodbye to Clarence Clemons "The Big Man"- NBC Nightly News -- humayoutube/456baihics I hope that you have enjoyed this week's offerings and wish you a great Martin Luther King Day and a wonderful week Sincerely, Greg Brown Gregory Brawn Chairman & CEO fibhai( as, P3IIIICIS. LLr EFTA01139717
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