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From: Office of Terje Rod-Larsen ‹
> 
Subject: September I update 
Date: Tue, 04 Sep 2012 13:58:55 +0000 
1 September, 2012 
Article 1. 
Wall Street Journal 
Why Israel Doesn't Trust Obama 
Editorial 
Article 2. 
The Independent (London) 
Morsi's slap in the face brings Ahmadinejad back to 
square one 
Peter Popham 
Article 3. 
NYT 
Republicans, in Search of a Foreign Policy 
Brian Katulis 
Article 4. 
Foreign Policy 
10 thing you don't know about Africa's booming 
economy 
Susan Lund, Arend Van Wamelen 
Article 5. 
The National Interest 
The GOP, China and Sheldon Adelson 
Robert Keatley 
Articles. 
SPIEGEL 
How China's Leaders Steer a Massive Nation 
Sandra Schulz 
Article I 
Wall Street Journal 
Why Israel Doesn't Trust Obama 
Editorial 
August 31, 2012 -- Barack Obama is fond of insisting that he "has Israel's 
back." Maybe he should mention that to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. 
In remarks to journalists in London quoted by the Guardian, General 
Martin Dempsey warned that any Israeli attack on Iran would "clearly 
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delay but probably not destroy Iran's nuclear programs." He also said 
economic sanctions on Iran were having an effect and needed more time 
to work, but that the good they were doing "could be undone if [Iran] was 
attacked prematurely." 
And to underscore the firmness of his opposition to an Israeli strike, the 
Chairman added that "I don't want to be complicit if they choose to do it." 
We don't know what exactly Gen. Dempsey thinks American non-
complicity might entail in the event of a strike. Should the Administration 
refuse to resupply Israel with jets and bombs, or condemn an Israeli strike 
at the M.? Nor do we know if the General was conducting freelance 
diplomacy or sending a signal from an Administration that feels the same 
way but doesn't want to say so during a political season. 
Whatever the case, the remarks were counterproductive and oddly timed, 
with this week's report by the International Atomic Energy Agency that 
Iran's nuclear programs haven't been slowed in the least by U.S. or 
international sanctions. In fact, they are accelerating. 
Iran has now installed 2,140 centrifuges at its underground Fordo facility 
near the city of Qom. Its stockpile of uranium enriched to 20%—or 87% 
of the enrichment needed to reach bomb-grade levels—has grown from 
effectively zero to some 200 kilograms in a year. Only 50 more kilograms 
of 20% uranium are needed to produce a bomb, and that's saying nothing 
of Iran's additional large stockpiles of reactor-grade uranium that can also 
be enriched to higher levels of purity. 
Administration officials have also repeatedly told the media that they 
aren't entirely sure if Iran really intends to build a bomb. We'll grant that 
ultimate intentions are usually unknowable, especially in closed societies 
such as Iran's. 
Yet as the IAEA noted, "the Agency has become increasingly concerned 
about the possible existence in Iran of undisclosed nuclear related 
activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile." 
These activities, by the way, "continued after 2003," according to the 
report. This puts paid for the umpteenth time the 2007 National 
Intelligence Estimate that misleadingly claimed the contrary. 
No wonder the Israelis are upset—at the U.S. Administration. It's one 
thing to hear from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that he wants to wipe you off 
the map: At least it has the ring of honesty. It's quite another to hear from 
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President Obama that he has your back, even as his Administration tries to 
sell to the public a make-believe world in which Iran's nuclear intentions 
are potentially peaceful, sanctions are working and diplomacy hasn't 
failed after three and half years. 
The irony for the Administration is that its head-in-the-sand performance 
is why many Israeli decision-makers believe they had better strike sooner 
than later. Not only is there waning confidence that Mr. Obama is 
prepared to take military action on his own, but there's also a fear that a 
re-elected President Obama will take a much harsher line on an Israeli 
attack than he would before the first Tuesday in November. 
If Gen. Dempsey or Administration officials really wanted to avert an 
Israeli strike, they would seek to reassure Jerusalem that the U.S. is under 
no illusions about the mullahs' nuclear goals—or about their proximity to 
achieving them. They're doing the opposite. 
Since coming to office, Obama Administration policy toward Israel has 
alternated between animus and incompetence. We don't know what 
motivated Gen. Dempsey's outburst, but a President who really had 
Israel's back would publicly contradict it. 
The Independent (London) 
Morsi's slap in the face brings Ahmadinejad 
back to square one 
Peter Popham 
September 1, 2012 -- Tehran spared neither money nor effort to make the 
16th summit of the Non-Aligned Movement, which concluded yesterday, 
a smashing success. 
A spanking new conference hall was constructed in a smart suburb in the 
north of the capital, the crumbling highways from the airports were 
spruced up, 200 Mercedes Benz limousines were bought to haul the 
delegates back and forth. The summit days were declared a public holiday, 
to give police a justification for stifling any protests, and Tehran residents 
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wishing to make themselves scarce were encouraged to do so by free gifts 
of petrol. 
But it all went badly wrong. The arrival of Egypt's President, Mohamed 
Morsi, was a coup: the first visit by an Egyptian leader since the Iranian 
revolution of 1979. And Mr Morsi's decision to come was a slap in the 
face for Washington, a further reason for the Iranian President to grin. 
The grin vanished, however, when Mr Morsi got up to speak. Far from 
endorsing Tehran's strategy, the moderate Islamist from Cairo, who has 
now shown several signs of being his own man, went straight for the 
jugular, identifying the civil war in Iran's close ally Syria as the latest in 
the line of just struggles that started in Tunis and went on to Cairo. 
"We should all express our full support to the struggle of those who are 
demanding freedom and justice in Syria," Mr Morsi declared. The world 
had "a moral duty" to support the Syrian opposition, he went on, whose 
struggle, was comparable to the Palestinians'. "The Palestinian and Syrian 
people are actively seeking freedom, dignity and human justice." And he 
wasn't finished. "Our solidarity with the struggle of Syrians against an 
oppressive regime that has lost its legitimacy," he said, "is an ethical duty, 
and a political and strategic necessity." 
It was a grave humiliation for Mr Morsi's hosts, and provoked the Syrian 
delegation, led by the Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem, to walk out. He 
later condemned the Egyptian's remarks as "an interference in Syria's 
internal affairs" and "an instigation for continuing the shedding of...Syrian 
blood". 
The passage of the other trophy guest, the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-
moon, through the summit was no happier for the Iranians. Like Mr 
Morsi, his acceptance of the invitation was seen as highly auspicious - but 
like the Egyptian he used his presence in Tehran to make his hosts squirm. 
Without naming any names, he characterised Iran's denial of the 
Holocaust as "outrageous". "I strongly reject any threat by any UN 
member state to destroy another," he said, "or outrageous comments to 
deny historical facts such as the Holocaust... Claiming another UN 
member state does not have the right to exist or describing it in racist 
terms is not only utterly wrong but undermines the very principles we 
have all promised to uphold." 
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These were not the words of support Tehran would have liked to hear. Nor 
was the rejection of a pre-summit tour of Iran's famously peaceful nuclear 
facilities the warm endorsement of friends that the summit was supposed 
to be. But these setbacks matter less in a country run by a regime like 
Iran's where the rulers hold all the cards: Iranians were none the wiser 
about Mr Morsi's and Mr Ban's scalding words, which were either mis-
translated or merely ignored by state media. And Iranian TV viewers' 
lasting impression of the summit was probably Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 
giving a sheepish-looking Secretary-General a tremendous ear-bashing of 
his own. 
How much does the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) matter? Fifty years 
ago, when the world was split between Washington and Moscow, it was 
seen as an influential alternative for those who wanted to retain their 
independence, a stage where the likes of Nehru and Tito could strut their 
stuff. This week, though 120 countries were represented, fewer than 50 
sent their top men. As Shashi Tharoor, India's former deputy UN 
secretary-general, now an Indian MP, pointed out this week, today the 
NAM is only one of numerous bodies to which medium-sized powers can 
belong. India, for example, maintains "a series of relationships, in 
different configurations, some overlapping, some not, with a variety of 
countries for different purposes". 
If Iran was hoping to use the summit to seize the diplomatic and moral 
high ground, the attempt blew up in its face: after Mr Morsi's bombshell 
and Syria's walkout, agreement on a policy over Syria looked remoter 
than ever. The summit also coincided with publication of a report by the 
International Atomic Energy Authority that Iran's capacity to refine 
uranium has been more than doubled, in defiance of sanctions. And today 
Tehran is likely to incur further condemnation when a dissident called 
Arzhang Davoodi, in jail since appearing in a documentary hostile to the 
Tehran regime in 2003, is expected to be executed. For Mr Ahmadinejad 
and his colleagues, it's back to square one. 
Article 3. 
NYT 
Republicans, in Search of a Foreign Policy 
Brian Katulis 
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August 31, 2012 -- MITT ROMNEY stuck fast to his foreign-policy 
playbook in his acceptance speech Thursday night — sloganeering about 
American exceptionalism, sneering at President Obama's record on Iran 
and Israel, and obscuring his own lack of new ideas. He said he would 
"honor America's democratic ideals because a free world is a more 
peaceful world" and he praised the "bipartisan foreign policy legacy of 
Truman and Reagan," but said nothing specific about how he would 
follow in their footsteps. 
The vagueness seems like a strategy in itself, and there's a good 
explanation: the disarray in his own party over national security. Today's 
Republicans are as divided on foreign policy as they've ever been, and 
Mr. Romney is finding it hard to bridge the divisions. No wonder he 
zoomed past foreign policy in some 3 minutes of a 39-minute speech. 
Centrists and neoconservatives are divided not only over security strategy, 
but the conservative base is also fractured over government spending —
including the defense budget. Neoconservatives who opposed even the 
modest defense cuts suggested by former Defense Secretary Robert M. 
Gates have come up against neo-isolationist Tea Party-backed tax-cutters 
and their guru, Grover G. Norquist. At the same time, some Republicans 
who have long said that government spending doesn't generally create 
jobs have promised — hypocritically — to oppose defense cuts that might 
cause job losses back at home. 
Is there a single foreign policy area on which Republicans largely agree? 
Not the Arab Spring. Calls from Senators John McCain and Lindsey 
Graham to arm Syria's rebels and impose a no-fly zone have largely fallen 
on deaf ears, including Mr. Romney's. Conservatives like Newt Gingrich 
and Representative Michele Bachmann have stoked fears about Islam in 
general, leaving it hard to tell just how much democracy they would seek 
to promote in countries like Egypt — where Islamists of various stripes 
have been winning elections, most recently for the presidency. 
Not Afghanistan. Republicans have struggled to articulate a coherent 
position distinct from Mr. Obama's, which may explain why Mr. 
Romney's acceptance speech didn't even mention the decade-long war, in 
which slightly fewer than 80,000 American troops are still fighting. 
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Not cybersecurity. Squabbling among Republicans in Congress helped 
prevent the adoption of legislation this summer to enhance our 
technological defenses and protect infrastructure from digital attack. 
Not diplomacy. The Congressional debate over the Law of the Sea Treaty 
this year, like the 2010 debate over the New Start treaty, which would 
reduce Russian and American nuclear missile arsenals, reflected deep 
philosophical divisions within the Republican ranks over whether treaties 
and other tools of statecraft advanced or hindered America's interests. 
In the past, Republican divisions over foreign policy were typically 
between a realist wing and a more fervent nationalist wing; realism 
usually won. In the 1950s, President Dwight D. Eisenhower, an 
internationalist, prevailed over Senator Robert A. Taft and his isolationist 
followers. Later, President Richard M. Nixon's engagement with China 
and President Ronald Reagan's diplomatic outreach to the Soviet Union 
won out over the skepticism of cold-war conservatives. 
After the 9/11 attacks, President George W. Bush ushered in a new level 
of infighting, from which his party has not recovered. Initially, 
neoconservatives like Paul D. Wolfowitz pressed a doctrine of preventive 
war and put it into effect in Iraq. Eventually, more pragmatic 
conservatives like Condoleezza Rice pulled the president back toward 
diplomacy. 
Over the last four years, Republicans tried to paper over their divisions. In 
the 2008 and 2010 elections, foreign policy hardly figured at all. But the 
Republican primary contest this year bared the deep conservative disarray. 
And this time, a new battle, between neoconservatives and neo-
isolationists, all but crowded out the party's pragmatic internationalists, 
like James A. Baker III and Colin L. Powell. 
Mr. Romney has dealt with these divisions in two ways. He has derided 
Mr. Obama's handling of foreign policy (notably on Iran and Israel) with 
overheated rhetoric but only vague hints at alternatives. Ms. Rice (whose 
rhetorical jab at Mr. Obama's "leading from behind" was a big applause 
line) and Mr. McCain (whose calls for aiding the Syrian opposition drew 
muted applause) echoed that theme at the convention. 
On the few matters in which Mr. Romney has offered a clearer difference, 
he has echoed the confrontational approach taken by Dick Cheney, John 
R. Bolton and other hard-line conservatives from the Bush years. For 
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example, he called Russia the "No. 1 geopolitical foe" of the United 
States and said he would designate China a currency manipulator on his 
first day in office. His call for Republicans to block ratification of the 
New Start treaty put him at odds with all five living Republican former 
secretaries of state, including Ms. Rice. 
But a mixture of cheerleading and fire-breathing does not make for a 
coherent and credible worldview. Now that he's the Republican nominee, 
Mr. Romney has an obligation to clarify his and his party's positions. It is 
imperative that he justify his plan to add more than $2 trillion in defense 
spending over the next 10 years and explain how the plan meshes with his 
proposals to simultaneously cut taxes, reduce the debt and strengthen 
America's economy. 
Mr. Romney should also explain what — if anything — he would do 
differently from President Obama in Egypt, which is perhaps the most 
important test today of America's support for democratic transitions 
around the world. He should go beyond clichés to specify how, exactly, he 
would strengthen military cooperation with Israel — which Israel's own 
defense minister, Ehud Barak, praised a month ago as "more than 
anything I can remember in the past." 
And he needs to get specific about his tactical approach to Syria, where 
the United States is already trying to help the Syrian opposition, control 
which elements of it get foreign military aid, and isolate the murderous 
regime of President Bashar al-Assad. 
Mitt Romney hopes to persuade Americans not only that he can fix the 
economy but also that he can lead at a time of great uncertainty abroad. To 
do so, he needs to first unite his party by offering clear alternatives to the 
president's policies. Vague criticisms of Mr. Obama won't cut it. 
Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, 
studies United States foreign policy in the Middle East and South Asia. 
Artick 4. 
Foreign Policy 
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10 things_you don't know about Africa's 
booming economy 
Susan Lund, Arend Van Wamelen 
August 31, 2012 -- Africa is no longer the "lost continent" of popular 
imagination. The region has been growing rapidly for over a decade, the 
private sector is expanding, and a new class of consumers is wielding 
considerable spending power. And because of its young and growing 
population, the sky is the limit for future growth: Between 2010 and 2020, 
the continent is set to add 122 million people to its labor force. An 
expansion of this magnitude should set the stage for dynamic growth, but 
capturing this potential will require a change in economic development 
strategy. At its current pace, Africa is not generating wage-paying jobs 
rapidly enough to absorb its massive labor force, which will be the largest 
in the world by 2035. 
Across Africa's diverse mosaic of countries, the challenge is the same: to 
create the kind of jobs that will ensure continued prosperity and stability 
for its citizens and enable Africa to become a major player in the world 
economy. If current trends continue, it will take the continent half a 
century to reach the same share of its labor force in stable, paying jobs as 
we see in East Asia today. Africa's most developed economies have a 
better record in producing wage-based employment, but shortfalls persist 
even in countries like South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco. Without wage-
paying jobs, millions will be forced to turn to subsistence activities to 
survive, squandering vast potential. 
To change this picture, Africa's leaders must move to accelerate job 
creation in order to entrench economic growth and continue to expand 
Africa's emerging consuming class. But it won't be easy. To illuminate the 
opportunities and challenges ahead, here are 10 things you might not 
know about Africa's economic landscape: 
1. Africa is booming. 
Africa has been the second-fastest-growing region in the world over the 
past 10 years. It has posted average annual GDP growth of 5.1 percent 
over the past decade, driven by greater political stability and economic 
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reforms that have unleashed the private sector in many of the continent's 
varied mosaic of economies. 
Poverty is also on the retreat. A new consuming class has taken its place: 
Since 2000, 31 million African households have joined the world's 
consuming class. At this point, when their household incomes exceed 
$5,000, measured at purchasing power parity, consumers begin to direct 
more than half their income to things other than food and shelter. The 
continent now has around 90 million people who fit this definition. That 
figure is projected to reach 128 million by 2020. 
Africa now has considerable discretionary spending power. Indeed, 
contrary to conventional wisdom, the majority of Africa's growth has 
come from domestic spending and non-commodity sectors, rather than the 
resources boom. 
2. Africa is poised to have the largest labor force in the world. 
By 2035, Africa's labor force will be bigger than that of any individual 
country in the world -- even bigger than economic behemoths like India 
and China. That offers the continent a chance to reap a demographic 
dividend, using its young and growing workers to boost economic growth. 
The story varies from country to country. Nigeria and Ethiopia, Africa's 
most populous countries, will together add 30 million workers -- an 
increase in their workforces of about 35 percent by 2020 -- while South 
Africa is expected to add 2 million workers, growth of only 13 percent. 
As Africa's workforce grows, the number of children and retired people 
that each worker supports will fall from the highest level in the world 
today to a level on a par with the United States and Europe in 2035 -- the 
other part of the demographic dividend. With fewer mouths to feed and 
fewer dependents to support, African households will begin to enjoy even 
greater discretionary spending power, furthering driving economic 
growth. 
3. African workers are better educated than ever before. 
Today 40 percent of Africans have some secondary or tertiary education --
and that share is rising fast. By 2020, the share of workers with some 
secondary or tertiary education will rise to nearly half. 
While education rates are higher than many outside observers might 
assume, this is still an area where African countries need to make further 
progress to remain economically competitive. While 33 percent of 
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Africans in the labor force receive some secondary education, 39 percent 
of Indian workers receive education at this level. In China, the share is an 
impressive 66 percent. 
Today, educational attainment and skills are not perceived as a major 
obstacle for employers, as a new McKinsey survey of more than 1,300 
African employers reveals. However, this is likely to be an increasingly 
important factor as the continent's economies develop -- employers in the 
survey from South Africa, for example, did cite difficulty in finding 
workers with the specific skills needed as a barrier to business. Across the 
continent, the right kind of education and practical training programs can 
give the next generation of workers the soft skills needed to do any kind 
of job -- not just basic literacy and numeracy, but also punctuality, 
communication, and dependability. 
4. Steady work is still hard to come by in Africa. 
But here's the bad news: Only 28 percent of Africans currently have 
stable, wage-paying jobs. To reap the benefits of its positive 
demographics and advancements in education, Africa needs to quickly 
create more jobs. Although Africa has created 37 million "stable" wage-
paying jobs over the past decade, 91 million people have been added to its 
labor force. 
As a result, 9 percent of the workforce is officially unemployed, and 
nearly two-thirds of African workers sustain themselves through 
subsistence activities and low-wage self-employment -- so-called 
"vulnerable" jobs. Poverty may be decreasing, but it remains stubbornly 
high. 
Youth unemployment is also a major challenge. In Egypt, one of the flash 
points of the Arab Spring, the adult unemployment rate is moderate -- but 
youth unemployment is sharply higher at 25 percent. For the sake of 
social and political stability, Africa needs to accelerate its creation of 
stable jobs that are the route to lasting prosperity and an expanding 
consuming class. 
5. With a few reforms, massive job growth is within Africa's reach. 
The experience of other emerging economies shows that Africa could 
accelerate its creation of stable jobs dramatically. When they were at a 
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similar stage of development as Africa today, Thailand, South Korea, and 
Brazil generated jobs at double or triple the rate as Africa. If current 
trends and policies continue, Africa looks set to create around 54 million 
more stable jobs by 2020, boosting the share of Africans with stable 
employment to 32 percent of the labor force. But if Africa were to match 
the efforts of Thailand, South Korea, and Brazil, it could create 72 million 
new stable jobs -- raising the portion of Africans with stable employment 
to 36 percent. 
This would lift millions more Africans out of poverty and vault millions 
of others into the consuming class. It would also cut the time needed to 
reach East Asia's percentage of stable employment by more than half --
from over 50 years to just 20 years. Africa's most developed economies --
such as South Africa, Morocco, and Egypt -- are on track to create more 
wage-paying jobs than new entrants to the workforce, thereby reducing 
the ranks of the unemployed and vulnerable employed. Three sectors in 
particular already have a proven capacity to create jobs in Africa and can 
do so in the future: agriculture, manufacturing, and retail and hospitality. 
6. Africa can become the world's breadbasket. 
Africa has about 60 percent of the world's unused cropland, providing it 
with a golden opportunity to simultaneously develop its agricultural sector 
and reduce unemployment. On current trends, African agriculture is on 
course to create 8 million wage-paying jobs between now and 2020. 
With two important reforms, however, Africa could add 6 million more 
jobs. First, policymakers could encourage expansion of large-scale 
commercial farming onto uncultivated land. African countries need to 
reform land rights and water management, build up their infrastructure, 
and improve access to inputs such as seeds, finance, and insurance in 
order to give a boost to agriculture. Such steps have allowed Mali, which 
built integrated road, rail, and sea links to transport refrigerated goods, to 
increase its mango exports to the European Union sixfold in just five 
years. 
Second, African economies can move from producing low-value grain to 
higher-value crops such as horticultural crops and biofuels. This will not 
only boost GDP, but provide much-needed jobs: Staples such as grains 
employ up to 50 people per 1,000 hectares while horticultural products 
need up to 800. 
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7. It's often cheaper for Africans to buy goods made in China than 
those made at home. 
African manufacturing is declining as a share in most economies, and that 
needs to stop. Africa is on course to generate 8 million new manufacturing 
jobs by 2020 but could nearly double that tally if it can reverse this trend. 
Rising labor costs and exchange rates across Asia give African economies 
an ideal opportunity to expand their manufacturing industries. There is 
already anecdotal evidence that Asian businesses are setting up factories 
in some African countries to regain their competitive advantage. 
High transportation and input costs, duties, and bureaucracy are some of 
the obstacles that have hindered African manufacturing in the past. The 
continent needs to open itself up to foreign investment too. Lesotho, a 
country of just 2 million people, has 100 times South Africa's exports of 
apparel to the United States on a per capita basis because it made 
investment attractive to foreign players and put the necessary rail and 
distribution infrastructure in place. Apparel manufacturing is Lesotho's 
largest employer, providing 40,000 workers with stable jobs. 
Prospects for manufacturing vary according to the country. Large, 
diversified economies like South Africa have relatively high labor costs, 
more skilled workers, and developed infrastructure, and need to move into 
higher-value-added production. Morocco has done this in auto parts and 
assembly. But less-developed African countries still have competitive 
wages and productivity and could develop as low-cost manufacturing 
hubs. 
8. Nigeria's four largest cities still have only six shopping malls. 
Africa's rising number of consumers is already driving growth in retailing, 
but the sector could grow much faster. The potential of retail still goes 
largely unrealized: In Ethiopia, Egypt, Ghana, and Nigeria, nearly three-
quarters of groceries are bought in tiny informal outlets. If barriers to 
foreign players were removed and action was taken to boost the share of 
modern retail outlets, this industry could finally hit its stride. 
Hospitality and tourism is another major potential growth area. Africa's 
advanced economies now receive around 70 percent of international 
visitors, but less developed countries can quickly improve their appeal to 
tourists. Take the case of Cape Verde, which offered investors a tax 
holiday, exemption from import duties, and free expatriation to foreign 
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investors, laying the groundwork for its currently booming tourism 
industry. Today, tourism employs one in five people in the island nation. 
Retail and hospitality together could add up to 14 million jobs throughout 
Africa by 2020 if the necessary reforms were undertaken. 
9. Africa needs more than petrodollars. 
Mining, oil, and gas contribute significantly to Africa's GDP, but these 
sectors employ less than 1 percent of the workforce. 
Africa needs a job strategy, not just a growth strategy. Countries in this 
region need explicit programs to create jobs, targeted at labor-intensive 
sectors that enjoy comparative advantage. Governments, working with 
private companies, need to improve access to finance in those sectors, 
build the necessary infrastructure, cut unnecessary regulation and 
bureaucracy and create a more business-friendly environment, and 
develop the skills needed to support the industries of the future. 
Morocco's auto-parts industry is an example of success. Realizing the 
country's unique advantage of proximity to the large market of high-
income earners in Europe, the Moroccan government set a goal for the 
country to become the industrial automotive supplier for Europe. Morocco 
analyzed its comparative advantage for more than 600 automotive parts 
and eventually chose around 100 parts on which to focus. It then created 
two free trade zones dedicated to the automotive industry. Today, the 
sector employs more than 60,000 people, and this year saw the opening of 
a 1 billion euro assembly plant by Renault. 
10. The future for Africa looks bright -- but there's still a lot of work 
to be done. 
More than 300 million Africans will remain in vulnerable jobs in 2020. 
And even if African governments are successful at promoting job 
creation, the number of Africans in vulnerable employment will keep on 
rising for at least another 20 years because the labor force is expanding so 
quickly. 
Africans in vulnerable jobs -- and those with no jobs at all -- will need 
government support. African governments can use their newfound 
resources to mitigate some of the pain of this process: They should invest 
in programs that help organize subsistence employment more effectively, 
as well as invest in health and education for the vulnerable. 
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Africa's employment challenge is daunting, but it is not unique. Many 
other emerging markets have transformed their employment landscapes 
and made sweeping gains in economic growth, and with the right policies 
in place, Africa has the right ingredients to produce similar success. 
Businesses and investors are beginning to take note of the continent's 
potential -- not only its wealth of natural resources but its vast human 
capital. Africa may, in fact, prove to be one of the next great global 
stories. 
Susan Lund is a principal at the McKinsey Global Institute, the business 
and economics research arm of McKinsey & Co. Arend Van Wamelen is a 
principal in McKinsey's Johannesburg office. 
Artick 5. 
The National Interest 
The GOP, China and Sheldon Adelson 
Robert Keatley 
August 31, 2012 -- Mitt Romney promises that as president he would be 
tougher on China than Barack Obama, the man he hopes to replace in the 
White House. He vows that he wouldn't coddle Beijing's communist 
leaders and would demand they cancel their expanding list of trade 
restrictions, give the currency an honest value and stop abusing human 
rights. He also promises to expand the U.S. Pacific fleet to discourage any 
expansionist ideas they may hold. 
But when it comes to campaign cash that flows, indirectly at least, partly 
from China with perhaps illegal origins, he seems bent on taking all he 
can get, even though that money supply depends largely upon the 
continued goodwill of those who command the Chinese Communist Party. 
The issue centers on the relationship of Romney and the Republican Party 
with Sheldon Adelson, the casino multibillionaire who has pledged up to a 
startling $100 million to defeat Obama and put in office a president he 
expects to be much friendlier to Israel, one of his lifelong concerns. The 
main source of the Adelson billions has become Macau, a city on the 
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southern coast near Hong Kong that is the only Chinese territory where its 
wealthy citizens can gamble legally—and where many, it is commonly 
believed, find its thirty-five casinos convenient for laundering cash 
acquired by less-than-honest means. The Adelson political contributions 
come as he is being investigated by the state of Nevada, the U.S. 
Department of Justice, and the Securities and Exchange Commission for 
possible bribery of mainland and Macau officials, which would be in 
violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. (He denies all allegations 
strenuously.) 
Sheldon Adelson controls four of Macau's biggest and most spectacular 
casinos, and they have become the main profit center of the traded 
companies he heads—the Las Vegas Sands Corp. and its listed subsidiary, 
Sands China Ltd. Forbes earlier this year estimated his net worth at $24.9 
billion, seventh highest in the United States and fourteenth in the world. 
The Adelson fortune did not originate with gambling—his first big 
venture was helping found Comdex, the annual computer-industry show 
held in Las Vegas, which he cashed out at great profit. By then, he was 
part owner of Las Vegas's aging Sands Hotel and Casino; the $862 million 
Comdex sale let him tear it down and replace it with a lavish casino and 
resort hotel he titled The Venetian, inspired by a honeymoon trip to Venice 
with his second wife. It was the first Las Vegas casino built as a 
destination center, not just a comparatively bare-bones place for losing 
money. Rivals derided this decision at the time, but The Venetian proved a 
huge success. 
Then Adelson discovered Macau. 
A bit of history is relevant. Macau (or Macao) was a Portuguese trading 
outpost from the 1500s and had been a commercial gambling center long 
before China regained sovereignty in 1999. But its casinos, dominated by 
one family, were considered somewhat sleazy ventures marred by 
prostitution, money laundering, corruption and assorted other ills 
(including Chinese criminal gangs called triads). These casinos were 
relatively small-time operations that relied mostly on punters from nearby 
Hong Kong; few mainland citizens were allowed to visit Macau after the 
communists came to power in 1949. 
But in 2002, with Macau as a special administrative region of China, that 
all changed. Its government, short of cash and with Beijing's approval, 
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ended the gambling monopoly and invited outsiders to upgrade its gaming 
facilities and image—and provide more tax revenue. Adelson's company, 
along with such others as MGM Mirage and Wynn Resorts, leaped at the 
chance. They saw increasingly affluent China as their real market and 
hoped to lure to their tables many from the richest portion of that nation's 
1.3 billion people. And they did. Last year, there were some sixteen 
million mainland visits to Macau; the gambling turnover was more than 
five times that of Las Vegas and is the world's largest. 
The first Adelson venture in Macau was an expanded version of his Las 
Vegas Venetian. Its huge main hall offers assorted games for the 
commonplace gambler, while high-stakes VIP rooms cater to the truly 
wealthy. On a floor high above the main hall, singing Chinese and other 
gondoliers give patrons leisurely cruises along three indoor canals lined 
with faux-Venetian shop fronts that offer the globe's leading luxury 
brands. Costumed sopranos occasionally fling open upper-floor windows 
and belt out a song or two under a fake blue sky. Macau had never seen 
the like, but the newest Adelson complex—the $4.4 billion Sands Cotai 
Central, which opened in April—is even grander. It offers 540 gaming 
tables, forty VIP rooms, 5800 hotel rooms managed by Conrad, Holiday 
Inn and Sheraton, plus twenty restaurants—all protected by a nearly three-
ton gold and bronze statue of the "God of Fortune." 
But it has not been an entirely smooth ride for either Sands China or 
Adelson. He has faced two main problems. 
The first is that the sometimes-abrasive casino magnate has had uneven 
relations with Macau and Beijing officials, and he can't always get speedy 
approval of all his development plans—such as raising quick cash by 
turning some property into costly apartments rather than casino resorts 
and malls. The details are complex, but investigations by such 
organizations as ProPublica, PBS's Frontline and The Wall Street Journal 
—plus a lawsuit against Adelson by a former senior Sands executive—
have turned up documents that suggest he was willing to grease official 
wheels with cash to get his way; one document talked about the need to 
spread $300 million around Beijing to solve his problems. There are also 
claims that he approved using prostitution and unsavory mainland 
organizers of gambling junkets to entice customers. 
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Adelson stoutly denies these and other allegations, and nothing has been 
proved. After Macau police arrested more than one hundred prostitutes in 
one of his casinos, for example, Adelson said this happened only because 
he told the cops where to look. He dismisses all claims of illegality 
outlined in the lawsuit, and it's not clear if official investigations into his 
operations will lead to charges. 
The other problem, even more beyond Adelson's control, is Beijing's 
ambivalent attitude toward Macau and big-time gambling. It's no secret 
that the biggest punters include corrupt mainland officials and the 
executives of state-controlled and private companies who pay the bribes. 
By getting credit in advance from junket organizers, such gamblers can 
arrange to suffer nominal losses in VIP rooms, only to have a portion 
show up in bank accounts offshore. The former Sands official has alleged 
that some $3 billion a month leaves China this way via Macau. 
All this violates assorted Chinese government and Communist Party 
regulations, but those who are supposed to enforce the rules can be friends 
and colleagues of those who break them. So no clear policies have 
evolved. But there have been hints of what could happen if the new 
leaders who will assume power in Beijing during the coming months 
decide to crack down. For one thing, they could limit the visas 
mainlanders need to enter Macau, thus cutting the customer base. They 
did this in 2008 and kept restrictions in place for a year; the growth of 
gaming revenues slowed sharply, and stock markets grew wary about 
casino company shares. In June, rumors spread that neighboring 
Guangdong Province would allow its citizens only three visits per year 
rather than four, and the market again trembled. Nothing came of it, 
however, but if future communist leaders decide to get serious about 
fighting corruption—rather than exploiting it—the results could be hard 
on Adelson and other casino magnates. Beijing faces rising resentment 
about corruption, nepotism and other practices, but it's an open question 
whether government and party leaders will respond 
All this would suggest the upright, and to some uptight, Mitt Romney 
might have second thoughts about welcoming the possibly tainted 
Adelson cash so eagerly. That doesn't seem to be the case. Sheldon 
Adelson was a prominent figure during the recent Romney visit to Israel, 
and he hosted vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan's first money-raising 
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event at his Las Vegas Venetian. The event was closed to the press, 
perhaps because Ryan, who stresses family values, didn't want to be seen 
collecting cash in a casino. 
The last GOP presidential candidate is less sanguine. Speaking on the 
PBS Newshour, Senator John McCain noted that much of the Adelson 
fortune comes from Macau. "Maybe, in a roundabout way, foreign money 
is coming into an American political campaign," he said. 
Robert Keatley is a former editor of The Asian Wall Street Journal and the 
South China Morning Post, both of Hong Kong. 
Arttcic 6. 
SPIEGEL 
How China's Leaders Steer a Massive 
Nation 
Sandra Schulz 
08/31/2012 -- There is no question that China is an authoritarian state. But 
Beijing's efforts to include experts and experiments in the way it governs 
also help to keep power in check. Once the government supports a project, 
it normally carries it out -- sometimes on a massive scale. Are there 
lessons to be taken from the Communist Party's method of governance? 
Western democracies consider themselves to be efficient, farsighted and 
just -- in other words, prime examples of "good governance." But in 
recent years, the euro and debt crises, along with wars in Iraq and 
Afghanistan , have shattered faith in the reliability of Western institutions. 
Disconcerted Europeans are casting a worried eye at newly industrialized 
nations like China and Brazil. Can the West learn something from 
countries that for so long sought its advice? This is part IV in a four-part 
series looking at how the world is governed today. To read the 
introduction, click here. For part I, on Brazil , click here. For part II, on 
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the United States , click here. For part III, on Denmark, click here. When 
Duan Tingzhi dreams, he sees a future filled with fountains. He dreams of 
water shooting into the air throughout his new city, to the delight of its 
residents. According to the newspaper, one day there will be one thousand 
fountains in the Lanzhou New Area, a region north of the old city of 
Lanzhou. 
For now, Duan sees only sheep, sheep with dirty coats, as gray as the 
skies above them. The sheep walk across Duan's wonderful, multi-lane, 
freshly asphalted street, and they're disruptive. They remind Duan, the 
man with the building authority, of just how far away the container 
terminals, the football stadiums, the sea and indeed the future still are 
from northwestern China, and how much work it will take to get there. 
Duan is so busy that he even sleeps in the New Area during the week, and 
he no longer has time for his family or for journalists. 
And yet it isn't often that someone shows an interest in Gansu Province, a 
relatively poor province of mountains and deserts, and so Duan leans 
across the conference table and speaks as if he were trying to conjure up 
the future. The province has "great potential," he says, slicing through the 
air with the edge of his hand to punctuate his arguments. First, he says, 
everything is already there: airports, railways and highways. Second, there 
is "unlimited electricity." And third, the province has rich mineral 
resources, including coal, oil and nickel. Of course, he adds, it also has 
plenty of workers. 
Duan's voice softens. He wants to attract international companies to the 
Lanzhou New Area. "Perhaps," he says, his voice becoming silky smooth, 
"you can help us convince Siemens to come here." The party official 
sitting next to him nods. 
Then Duan has to go. It's a gloomy day, and the wind is howling through 
the shells of buildings. According to the plans, there will be 300,000 
people living here in 2015, 600,000 by the year 2020 and eventually as 
many as a million. 
But Duan is merely a local chief planner. The important chief planners are 
in Beijing and have one of the most difficult jobs in the world: governing 
a nation of 1.3 billion people. China's provinces are as populous as entire 
countries on other continents. Hunan has as many people as France, Hubei 
as many as Italy and Sichuan as many as Germany. China's powerful men 
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